NOVARUNNERS PROJECTIONS
VHSL Class 2 State Championship 2026
VHSL Class 2 State Championship, Sat Nov 7, 2026, Salem. Team standings projected from ratings, with each rating’s basis in view where it rests on a meet.
PROJECTION · UNOFFICIAL
Calculated Oct 30.
A deterministic projection, not a result. Each qualifying team’s seven highest-rated runners and the individual qualifiers are placed in rating order in one combined field per sex; the teams are then scored like a cross-country meet, with individuals taking no team place. It predicts no times and gives no probabilities.
COVERAGE
Who is rated, and from what.
Each runner’s rating is their best 2026 Statistical Rating on the day among their rated district and regional championship races, not their season best: varsity races only, middle-school runners left out, lower-tier races dropped. The field comes from the regional championships the coverage notes name, matched to that rating by athlete ID; a runner without a rated 2026 district or regional race is counted but not listed. How on-the-day ratings work
| Coverage | Boys | Girls |
|---|---|---|
| Qualifying teams | 12 | 12 |
| Individual qualifiers | 20 | 20 |
| Rated runners in the field | 102 | 102 |
| Rated district or regional races (one · two or more) | 10290 · 12 | 10293 · 9 |
| Teams ranked (five or more rated) | 12 of 12 | 12 of 12 |
| Teams unranked | 0 | 0 |
| Statistical Rating K (2026 scale) | 487.341 | 489.861 |
Ratings are each runner’s best 2026 on-the-day rating among their rated district and regional championship races (v16, as of 2026-10-30), not their season best. Field: the top 3 teams from the Region 2A, Region 2B, Region 2C and Region 2D championships (Oct 28) and from each, the first 5 finishers not on a qualifying team, who run as individuals. Each qualifying team runs its 7 highest-rated runners among those who ran for it at its regional championship; the rest of its regional squad is not in the field. Individuals take no team place, so they never score or displace. Rated district and regional races per runner, over every runner the qualifying rule gives (each qualifying team’s squad and the individual qualifiers), boys: 12 with two or more, 90 with one, 0 with none; girls: 9 with two or more, 93 with one, 0 with none. A runner with none is not listed. The meet’s team list was not yet posted, so the field follows the qualifying rule alone. Regular-season races are not used; the 33 rated district and regional championships are on the meets page.
TEAM STANDINGS · COMBINED HYPOTHETICAL FIELD
Boys · Class 2 State 2026 projection
| Rank | Team | Score | Scoring order | Runners by basis | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Clarke County | 81 | 1-5-21-26-28 (34)(53) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Clarke County
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 02 | Stonewall Jackson (Quicksburg) | 102 | 2-8-23-33-36 (70)(79) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Stonewall Jackson (Quicksburg)
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 03 | Fort Defiance | 113 | 11-15-20-24-43 (68)(74) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Fort Defiance
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 04 | Glenvar | 117 | 10-12-22-29-44 (47)(49) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Glenvar
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 05 | Floyd County | 136 | 3-6-13-51-63 (65)(69) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Floyd County
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 06 | Bruton | 167 | 19-31-38-39-40 (42)(48) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Bruton
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 07 | James River (Buchanan) | 168 | 16-17-30-41-64 (71)(82) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for James River (Buchanan)
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 08 | King William | 199 | 9-35-37-58-60 (61)(78) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for King William
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 09 | Poquoson | 208 | 4-45-46-56-57 (62)(73) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Poquoson
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Lebanon | 209 | 25-27-50-52-55 (59) | 2026: 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for Lebanon
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Wise Central | 238 | 7-14-66-75-76 (80) | 2026: 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for Wise Central
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | Virginia Bearcats | 243 | 18-32-54-67-72 (77)(81) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Virginia Bearcats
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
A score adds the first five team places. Team places count only runners on ranked teams, so they can be lower than the overall rating order. Tied scores are broken by the sixth runner’s place, and a team with a sixth runner ranks ahead of one without.
TOP INDIVIDUALS · RATING ORDER · NOT A FINISH PREDICTION
Boys · top 100 rated runners
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Bradley HamiltonNottoway | 173.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 02 | Landon HortonClarke County | 158.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 03 | Marcus BowleyStonewall Jackson (Quicksburg) | 155.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 04 | William MoeckelFloyd County | 153.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 05 | Bryce GoodalePoquoson | 153.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 06 | Corbin DykeClarke County | 149.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 07 | Trace LewisFloyd County | 146.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 08 | Nathan WallinWise Central | 146.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 09 | Fisher MartinPatrick County | 144.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 10 | Hunter MartinPatrick County | 144.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 11 | Landon BishopMadison County | 143.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 12 | Penn WatkinsonStonewall Jackson (Quicksburg) | 142.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 13 | Grady HeinsmanKing William | 141.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 14 | Jaxson KuzmichGlenvar | 140.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 15 | Connor NicholsonStrasburg | 140.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 16 | Leighton MagalisFort Defiance | 139.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 17 | Zachary Elijah DavisGlenvar | 139.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 18 | Hugo WangCentral (Woodstock) | 139.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 19 | Grayson HarrisFloyd County | 136.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 20 | Ty ArneyWise Central | 136.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 21 | Matt DulaneyFort Defiance | 135.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 22 | Braden JonesJames River (Buchanan) | 135.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 23 | Mark VoightJames River (Buchanan) | 134.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 24 | Jeremy MorrisMadison County | 133.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 25 | Liam PrattVirginia Bearcats | 133.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
Show all 100 (75 more)Showing all 100 · show fewer
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Lucas JohnsonBruton | 133.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 27 | Jonathan PiedraNelson County | 133.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 28 | Cooper PattersonFort Defiance | 131.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 29 | Hudson DykeClarke County | 131.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 30 | Evan HarrisGlenvar | 130.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 31 | Hayden SealStonewall Jackson (Quicksburg) | 130.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 32 | William SteeleRadford | 130.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 33 | Wyatt MetcalfeFort Defiance | 129.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 34 | Elliott BreedingLebanon | 129.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 35 | Jaxon StaplesPage County | 127.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 36 | Matthew LiskClarke County | 127.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 37 | Brendan BorumLiberty (Bedford) | 127.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 38 | Aybrum HammondLebanon | 124.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 39 | Carter StarleyClarke County | 123.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 40 | Asher FaughtGlenvar | 122.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 41 | Nolan LinthicumJames River (Buchanan) | 121.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 42 | Jaidan RamseyRandolph-Henry | 120.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 43 | Elijah StaffordLee | 119.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 44 | Bryan Melendez-ColonBruton | 119.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 45 | Timothe ReginVirginia Bearcats | 119.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 46 | Gage RossArcadia | 118.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 47 | Cade BelyeaStonewall Jackson (Quicksburg) | 118.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 48 | Brody EllisClarke County | 117.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 49 | Michael HinesLee | 117.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 50 | Logan AtkinsKing William | 117.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 51 | Haden RichardsStonewall Jackson (Quicksburg) | 117.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 52 | Dewayne HasslerKing William | 116.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 53 | Chase WestBruton | 116.4 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 54 | Riley StephensBruton | 114.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 55 | Jayden RayfordBruton | 114.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 56 | Charles StullJames River (Buchanan) | 112.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 57 | Cash MetherellBruton | 111.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 58 | Daniel CritchfieldAmelia County | 111.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 59 | Peyton McCrayFort Defiance | 110.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 60 | Danny Martinez-ChavesNandua | 109.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 61 | Jackson WimmerGlenvar | 108.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 62 | Max JohnsonRidgeview | 108.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 63 | Alex SalakPoquoson | 106.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 64 | Liam HeldrethPoquoson | 106.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 65 | Colin GraffeoGlenvar | 104.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 66 | Gervel DelValleBruton | 103.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 67 | Harold (Cash MalcolmGlenvar | 103.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 68 | Seth NunleyTazewell | 103.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 69 | Jack GarlandLebanon | 101.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 70 | Landon HarrisGate City | 101.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 71 | Braden DaltonFloyd County | 100.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 72 | Asher TaylorLebanon | 99.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 73 | Ryan SheppardClarke County | 99.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 74 | Alex KariukiVirginia Bearcats | 98.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 75 | Clayton BrownLebanon | 98.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 76 | Jude WilliamsPoquoson | 95.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 77 | Riley JonesPoquoson | 91.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 78 | Chase MinterKing William | 91.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 79 | Landin LitttrellLebanon | 90.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 80 | Zachary MillerKing William | 89.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 81 | Colton ThayerKing William | 89.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 82 | Eli GreenPoquoson | 87.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 83 | Bryce SchumannFloyd County | 86.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 84 | Barrett PaceJames River (Buchanan) | 84.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 85 | Joshua BiesterveldFloyd County | 82.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 86 | Jeremy WellsWise Central | 81.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 87 | Josh DeBuskVirginia Bearcats | 79.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 88 | Digory TowlesFort Defiance | 74.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 89 | Jaxon FisherFloyd County | 72.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 90 | Emmett BrenneisStonewall Jackson (Quicksburg) | 71.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 91 | Brody StewartJames River (Buchanan) | 64.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 92 | Dylan KellogVirginia Bearcats | 63.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 93 | Seth GreenPoquoson | 62.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 94 | Liam WelchFort Defiance | 57.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 95 | William SturgillWise Central | 56.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 96 | Bentley HopkinsWise Central | 52.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 97 | Thomas CaldwellVirginia Bearcats | 50.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 98 | Cohen SmithKing William | 48.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 99 | Joshua NicholasStonewall Jackson (Quicksburg) | 43.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 100 | Logan HamiltonWise Central | 40.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
Order is by Statistical Rating among every rated runner in the field: each qualifying team’s seven and the individual qualifiers, who score for no team. A rating is the runner’s best district or regional race. The coverage notes describe the field. Runners with the same shown rating stay in unrounded order.
UNRANKED TEAMS · BOYS
0 qualifying teams with fewer than five rated runners
Unranked means not scored, not last. Their rated runners still appear in the individual order.
READ BEFORE USING
What this projection is not.
- A combined hypothetical field per sex. Qualification comes from the regional championships, not from the meet’s own lists, so the field can differ from who actually runs. This is not an official division result.
- Qualifiers are not starters. A team’s seven highest-rated regional runners may not be the seven who run, and a qualifier may not start; each team’s other regional runners are not shown. A runner’s best district or regional race may be older than the regional championship.
- Points are not predicted times. A Statistical Rating puts every course on one yardstick; it is not a predicted time, and not a Class 2 State course time.
- No probabilities. Nothing here is a chance of winning, a margin or an interval.
- Gaps stay gaps. Unrated runners and incomplete teams are missing evidence, not predictions of a slow or last-place finish.