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NOVARUNNERS PROJECTIONS

Patriot District CC Championship 2026

Patriot District CC Championship, Wed Oct 21, 2026, Fairfax Station. Team standings projected from ratings, with each rating’s basis in view where it rests on a meet.

PROJECTION · UNOFFICIAL

Calculated Oct 18.

A deterministic projection, not a result. Each registered team’s seven highest-rated runners are placed in rating order in one combined field per sex, then scored like a cross-country meet. It predicts no times and gives no probabilities.

Actual results: Patriot District CC Championship 2026 results

COVERAGE

Who is rated, and from what.

Each runner’s rating is their 2026 season-best Statistical Rating on the day, the value the team boards use: varsity races only, middle-school runners left out, lower-tier races dropped. A team’s roster is the runners whose rated 2026 races were for that team; there is no 2025 fallback, so a runner without a rated 2026 race is not shown. How on-the-day ratings work

Patriot District 2026 registered teams, rated runners and ranked teams, by sex
CoverageBoysGirls
Registered teams88
Rated runners on their rosters10382
2026 rating (one meet · two or more)10330 · 738225 · 57
Teams ranked (five or more rated)8 of 88 of 8
Teams unranked00
Statistical Rating K (2026 scale)486.411490.887

2026 ratings come from 18 admitted meets: Adidas XC Challenge, Albemarle Invitational, Fork Union Cross Country Invitational, Great American XC Festival, Ham City Hustle Invitational, Knights Crossing XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational, Octoberfest Invitational, Pole Green - "The Southern" XC Invite by ECE, Pole Green XC Classic, Runnin' with the Wolves, StallionsXC Invitational, The VA XC Showcase, Third Battle Invitational, Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Trinity / Valkyrie Invitational, VTCA Fall Classic, Wolverine XC Invitational. Ratings are the 2026 v10 season bests as of 2026-10-18; the team list was captured 2026-10-17. 1 team missing from the meet’s team list is added to the field: C.G. Woodson. The team list does not say boys or girls, so every registered team is in both fields. Only each team’s seven highest-rated runners are in the field, so the individual order leaves out the rest.

TEAM STANDINGS · COMBINED HYPOTHETICAL FIELD

Girls · Patriot District 2026 projection

Scoring order in timing-sheet notation: the first five places add up to the score; the sixth and seventh, in parentheses, can displace other teams’ runners.Lower score is better
Projected girls team standings; each team is followed by a disclosure listing its seven runners
RankTeamScoreScoring orderRunners by basis
01James W. Robinson282-3-4-9-10 (22)(25)2026: 7
7 runners for James W. Robinson
James W. Robinson: the seven highest-rated runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team placeRunnerStat. ratingBasisEvidence
2Petra Gruendel131.22026 · 4 meetsBest: The VA XC Showcase, Oct 17 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational, Great American XC Festival
3Alexandra Bird131.12026 · 4 meetsBest: Great American XC Festival, Oct 3 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational, The VA XC Showcase
4Karina Bird130.42026 · 4 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Great American XC Festival, The VA XC Showcase
9Juliet Lord105.52026 · 4 meetsBest: Great American XC Festival, Oct 3 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational, The VA XC Showcase
10Isabella Willard105.12026 · 2 meetsBest: Wolverine XC Invitational, Sep 19 · also Great American XC Festival
(22)Mairyn Mullins88.62026 · 4 meetsBest: The VA XC Showcase, Oct 17 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational, Great American XC Festival
(25)Kaitlyn Ruby86.72026 · 2 meetsBest: The VA XC Showcase, Oct 17 · also Wolverine XC Invitational
02West Springfield471-7-8-13-18 (20)(23)2026: 7
7 runners for West Springfield
West Springfield: the seven highest-rated runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team placeRunnerStat. ratingBasisEvidence
1Allie Horner144.82026 · 3 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Adidas XC Challenge, VTCA Fall Classic
7Anna Johnson111.22026 · 3 meetsBest: Adidas XC Challenge, Sep 19 · also VTCA Fall Classic, Third Battle Invitational
8Reagan Leone109.92026 · 1 meetBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10
13Caitlin Fisher100.32026 · 3 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Adidas XC Challenge, VTCA Fall Classic
18Zoie Collins92.62026 · 3 meetsBest: VTCA Fall Classic, Sep 26 · also Adidas XC Challenge, Third Battle Invitational
(20)Olivia Collins91.52026 · 3 meetsBest: VTCA Fall Classic, Sep 26 · also Adidas XC Challenge, Third Battle Invitational
(23)Audrey Yiengst88.02026 · 3 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Adidas XC Challenge, VTCA Fall Classic
03C.G. Woodson805-12-15-21-27 (29)(32)2026: 7
7 runners for C.G. Woodson
C.G. Woodson: the seven highest-rated runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team placeRunnerStat. ratingBasisEvidence
5Annie Przydzial126.62026 · 3 meetsBest: Great American XC Festival, Oct 3 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational
12Jacklyn Gillanders102.82026 · 3 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Great American XC Festival
15Carleigh Devlin95.72026 · 4 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Oatlands Invitational, Great American XC Festival
21Violet Conklin89.72026 · 3 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Great American XC Festival
27Zoe Sawtelle80.82026 · 4 meetsBest: Great American XC Festival, Oct 3 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Wolverine XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational
(29)Charlotte Conklin75.92026 · 4 meetsBest: Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Sep 4 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational, Great American XC Festival
(32)Marie Sohlberg70.12026 · 4 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Wolverine XC Invitational, Great American XC Festival
04Lake Braddock10414-17-19-24-30 (34)(37)2026: 7
7 runners for Lake Braddock
Lake Braddock: the seven highest-rated runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team placeRunnerStat. ratingBasisEvidence
14Nyla Culver99.32026 · 5 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Adidas XC Challenge, VTCA Fall Classic, Octoberfest Invitational
17Addy Finlan93.52026 · 5 meetsBest: Octoberfest Invitational, Oct 3 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Adidas XC Challenge, VTCA Fall Classic, Third Battle Invitational
19Sophia Finlan92.42026 · 4 meetsBest: The VA XC Showcase, Oct 17 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Adidas XC Challenge, Third Battle Invitational
24Abigail Hogsett86.82026 · 5 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Adidas XC Challenge, VTCA Fall Classic, Octoberfest Invitational
30Kylie Griffith72.92026 · 3 meetsBest: Octoberfest Invitational, Oct 3 · also VTCA Fall Classic, Third Battle Invitational
(34)Keira Bourkland65.52026 · 5 meetsBest: Octoberfest Invitational, Oct 3 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Adidas XC Challenge, VTCA Fall Classic, Third Battle Invitational
(37)Amy Mathis60.02026 · 5 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Adidas XC Challenge, VTCA Fall Classic, Octoberfest Invitational
05Alexandria City1076-11-26-31-33 (38)(39)2026: 7
7 runners for Alexandria City
Alexandria City: the seven highest-rated runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team placeRunnerStat. ratingBasisEvidence
6Sophie Meisner118.42026 · 4 meetsBest: The VA XC Showcase, Oct 17 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Wolverine XC Invitational, Great American XC Festival
11Quinn McGlinchey103.82026 · 4 meetsBest: Great American XC Festival, Oct 3 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Wolverine XC Invitational, The VA XC Showcase
26Claire Henel81.82026 · 4 meetsBest: The VA XC Showcase, Oct 17 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Wolverine XC Invitational, Great American XC Festival
31Rayan Yahya72.22026 · 3 meetsBest: The VA XC Showcase, Oct 17 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Great American XC Festival
33Ella Salerno69.52026 · 3 meetsBest: Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Sep 4 · also Great American XC Festival, The VA XC Showcase
(38)Gemma Cordts55.82026 · 2 meetsBest: The VA XC Showcase, Oct 17 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance
(39)Priya Munipalla55.62026 · 4 meetsBest: The VA XC Showcase, Oct 17 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Wolverine XC Invitational, Great American XC Festival
06South County16916-28-40-42-43 (49)(52)2026: 7
7 runners for South County
South County: the seven highest-rated runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team placeRunnerStat. ratingBasisEvidence
16Ariana Mather93.72026 · 3 meetsBest: VTCA Fall Classic, Sep 26 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Octoberfest Invitational
28Aniston Casne77.02026 · 3 meetsBest: VTCA Fall Classic, Sep 26 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Octoberfest Invitational
40Morgan Williams45.52026 · 3 meetsBest: Octoberfest Invitational, Oct 3 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, VTCA Fall Classic
42Meredith Williams34.52026 · 3 meetsBest: VTCA Fall Classic, Sep 26 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Octoberfest Invitational
43Anna Kosowski34.22026 · 2 meetsBest: Octoberfest Invitational, Oct 3 · also VTCA Fall Classic
(49)Justice Owens14.32026 · 1 meetBest: Wolverine XC Invitational, Sep 19
(52)Anna McDowell7.02026 · 2 meetsBest: VTCA Fall Classic, Sep 26 · also Wolverine XC Invitational
07West Potomac20335-36-41-45-462026: 5
5 runners for West Potomac
West Potomac: the seven highest-rated runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team placeRunnerStat. ratingBasisEvidence
35Annabelle Lee61.52026 · 1 meetBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26
36Colette Foley60.02026 · 1 meetBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26
41Grace Dalton34.92026 · 1 meetBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26
45Eliza Anderson25.32026 · 1 meetBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26
46Charlotte Correll20.22026 · 1 meetBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26
08Fairfax24044-47-48-50-51 (53)(54)2026: 7
7 runners for Fairfax
Fairfax: the seven highest-rated runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team placeRunnerStat. ratingBasisEvidence
44Ella Chan32.02026 · 2 meetsBest: Octoberfest Invitational, Oct 3 · also Oatlands Invitational
47Jaylah Binoya18.12026 · 2 meetsBest: Octoberfest Invitational, Oct 3 · also Oatlands Invitational
48Stella Sartori17.62026 · 2 meetsBest: Octoberfest Invitational, Oct 3 · also Oatlands Invitational
50Kylie Martin11.92026 · 2 meetsBest: Octoberfest Invitational, Oct 3 · also Oatlands Invitational
51Tamsin Chapin11.62026 · 1 meetBest: Octoberfest Invitational, Oct 3
(53)Evelyn Nazareno1.52026 · 1 meetBest: Octoberfest Invitational, Oct 3
(54)Mia Baily—2026 · 1 meetBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26

A score adds the first five team places. Team places count only runners on ranked teams, so they can be lower than the overall rating order. Tied scores are broken by the sixth runner’s place, and a team with a sixth runner ranks ahead of one without.

TOP INDIVIDUALS · RATING ORDER · NOT A FINISH PREDICTION

Girls · top 54 rated runners

Girls top rated runners, 1 to 25
OrderRunner / teamStatistical RatingRating basisTeam status
01Allie HornerWest Springfield144.82026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
02Petra GruendelJames W. Robinson131.22026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
03Alexandra BirdJames W. Robinson131.12026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
04Karina BirdJames W. Robinson130.42026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
05Annie PrzydzialC.G. Woodson126.62026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
06Sophie MeisnerAlexandria City118.42026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
07Anna JohnsonWest Springfield111.22026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
08Reagan LeoneWest Springfield109.92026 · 1 meetIn team’s seven
09Juliet LordJames W. Robinson105.52026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
10Isabella WillardJames W. Robinson105.12026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
11Quinn McGlincheyAlexandria City103.82026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
12Jacklyn GillandersC.G. Woodson102.82026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
13Caitlin FisherWest Springfield100.32026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
14Nyla CulverLake Braddock99.32026 · 5 meetsIn team’s seven
15Carleigh DevlinC.G. Woodson95.72026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
16Ariana MatherSouth County93.72026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
17Addy FinlanLake Braddock93.52026 · 5 meetsIn team’s seven
18Zoie CollinsWest Springfield92.62026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
19Sophia FinlanLake Braddock92.42026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
20Olivia CollinsWest Springfield91.52026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
21Violet ConklinC.G. Woodson89.72026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
22Mairyn MullinsJames W. Robinson88.62026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
23Audrey YiengstWest Springfield88.02026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
24Abigail HogsettLake Braddock86.82026 · 5 meetsIn team’s seven
25Kaitlyn RubyJames W. Robinson86.72026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
Show all 54 (29 more)Showing all 54 · show fewer
Girls top rated runners, 26 to 54
OrderRunner / teamStatistical RatingRating basisTeam status
26Claire HenelAlexandria City81.82026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
27Zoe SawtelleC.G. Woodson80.82026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
28Aniston CasneSouth County77.02026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
29Charlotte ConklinC.G. Woodson75.92026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
30Kylie GriffithLake Braddock72.92026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
31Rayan YahyaAlexandria City72.22026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
32Marie SohlbergC.G. Woodson70.12026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
33Ella SalernoAlexandria City69.52026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
34Keira BourklandLake Braddock65.52026 · 5 meetsIn team’s seven
35Annabelle LeeWest Potomac61.52026 · 1 meetIn team’s seven
36Colette FoleyWest Potomac60.02026 · 1 meetIn team’s seven
37Amy MathisLake Braddock60.02026 · 5 meetsIn team’s seven
38Gemma CordtsAlexandria City55.82026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
39Priya MunipallaAlexandria City55.62026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
40Morgan WilliamsSouth County45.52026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
41Grace DaltonWest Potomac34.92026 · 1 meetIn team’s seven
42Meredith WilliamsSouth County34.52026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
43Anna KosowskiSouth County34.22026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
44Ella ChanFairfax32.02026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
45Eliza AndersonWest Potomac25.32026 · 1 meetIn team’s seven
46Charlotte CorrellWest Potomac20.22026 · 1 meetIn team’s seven
47Jaylah BinoyaFairfax18.12026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
48Stella SartoriFairfax17.62026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
49Justice OwensSouth County14.32026 · 1 meetIn team’s seven
50Kylie MartinFairfax11.92026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
51Tamsin ChapinFairfax11.62026 · 1 meetIn team’s seven
52Anna McDowellSouth County7.02026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
53Evelyn NazarenoFairfax1.52026 · 1 meetIn team’s seven
54Mia BailyFairfax—2026 · 1 meetIn team’s seven

Order is by Statistical Rating among rated runners in this projection’s field, including runners on unranked teams. The coverage notes describe the field. Runners with the same shown rating stay in unrounded order.

UNRANKED TEAMS · GIRLS

0 teams with fewer than five rated runners

Unranked means not scored, not last. Their rated runners still appear in the individual order.

READ BEFORE USING

What this projection is not.

Rank. Projected team order, lowest score first. Tied scores are broken by the sixth runner’s place.Score. The sum of the team’s first five team-scoring places. Lower is better.Scoring order. Team places as on a timing sheet: the first five add up to the score. The sixth and seventh, in parentheses, can displace other teams’ runners.Team place. Place counting only runners on ranked teams, so it can be lower than the overall rating order. Places in parentheses can displace other teams’ runners.Statistical Rating. The runner’s rating on the meet season’s points scale, not a predicted time on this course. Shown to 0.1 point (1 point = 3 s), with a dash below 0.Evidence. The meet and date behind the rating, and any other current-season meets.Coverage. The meet’s registered teams by sex: how many there are, how many rated runners their rosters hold, what it rests on, and how many teams can be scored.Boys. Counts for the boys’ registered teams.Girls. Counts for the girls’ registered teams.Team. A registered team with at least five rated runners. Teams with fewer are not scored, rather than ranked last.Runners by basis. How many of the team’s listed runners are rated from this season’s races. Every rating on this page is a season best; none is carried over from an earlier season.Runner. A runner on a registered team, one of the team’s seven highest-rated runners.Rating basis. What the rating rests on: the runner’s best rated race this season, at identified meets. Every rating on this page rests on this.Order. Position by Statistical Rating among rated runners in this projection’s field, including runners on unranked teams. The coverage notes describe the field. Not a finish prediction.Runner / team. The runner and the registered team whose roster they are on.Team status. Whether the runner is in the team’s scoring seven or on an unranked team with fewer than five rated runners. A projection that includes runners beyond a team’s seven marks them as outside the seven.