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NOVARUNNERS PROJECTIONS

Patriot District CC Championship 2026

Patriot District CC Championship, Wed Oct 21, 2026, Fairfax Station. Team standings projected from ratings, with each rating’s basis in view where it rests on a meet.

PROJECTION · UNOFFICIAL

Calculated Oct 18.

A deterministic projection, not a result. Each registered team’s seven highest-rated runners are placed in rating order in one combined field per sex, then scored like a cross-country meet. It predicts no times and gives no probabilities.

Actual results: Patriot District CC Championship 2026 results

COVERAGE

Who is rated, and from what.

Each runner’s rating is their 2026 season-best Statistical Rating on the day, the value the team boards use: varsity races only, middle-school runners left out, lower-tier races dropped. A team’s roster is the runners whose rated 2026 races were for that team; there is no 2025 fallback, so a runner without a rated 2026 race is not shown. How on-the-day ratings work

Patriot District 2026 registered teams, rated runners and ranked teams, by sex
CoverageBoysGirls
Registered teams88
Rated runners on their rosters10382
2026 rating (one meet · two or more)10330 · 738225 · 57
Teams ranked (five or more rated)8 of 88 of 8
Teams unranked00
Statistical Rating K (2026 scale)486.411490.887

2026 ratings come from 18 admitted meets: Adidas XC Challenge, Albemarle Invitational, Fork Union Cross Country Invitational, Great American XC Festival, Ham City Hustle Invitational, Knights Crossing XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational, Octoberfest Invitational, Pole Green - "The Southern" XC Invite by ECE, Pole Green XC Classic, Runnin' with the Wolves, StallionsXC Invitational, The VA XC Showcase, Third Battle Invitational, Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Trinity / Valkyrie Invitational, VTCA Fall Classic, Wolverine XC Invitational. Ratings are the 2026 v10 season bests as of 2026-10-18; the team list was captured 2026-10-17. 1 team missing from the meet’s team list is added to the field: C.G. Woodson. The team list does not say boys or girls, so every registered team is in both fields. Only each team’s seven highest-rated runners are in the field, so the individual order leaves out the rest.

TEAM STANDINGS · COMBINED HYPOTHETICAL FIELD

Boys · Patriot District 2026 projection

Scoring order in timing-sheet notation: the first five places add up to the score; the sixth and seventh, in parentheses, can displace other teams’ runners.Lower score is better
Projected boys team standings; each team is followed by a disclosure listing its seven runners
RankTeamScoreScoring orderRunners by basis
01Lake Braddock464-6-7-11-18 (26)(27)2026: 7
7 runners for Lake Braddock
Lake Braddock: the seven highest-rated runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team placeRunnerStat. ratingBasisEvidence
4Matt Walters167.62026 · 3 meetsBest: Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Sep 4 · also Adidas XC Challenge, VTCA Fall Classic
6Calvin Benson165.52026 · 4 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Adidas XC Challenge, VTCA Fall Classic
7Grayson Richards165.52026 · 4 meetsBest: Adidas XC Challenge, Sep 19 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, VTCA Fall Classic, Third Battle Invitational
11Maverick Magruder163.42026 · 4 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Adidas XC Challenge, VTCA Fall Classic
18Noah DeLuke158.32026 · 4 meetsBest: Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Sep 4 · also Adidas XC Challenge, VTCA Fall Classic, Third Battle Invitational
(26)Tyson Culver153.62026 · 3 meetsBest: Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Sep 4 · also Adidas XC Challenge, Third Battle Invitational
(27)Marek Manka153.32026 · 2 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also VTCA Fall Classic
02West Potomac691-5-14-17-32 (36)(40)2026: 7
7 runners for West Potomac
West Potomac: the seven highest-rated runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team placeRunnerStat. ratingBasisEvidence
1Daniel Black172.72026 · 2 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Oatlands Invitational
5Nico Diffenbach167.22026 · 2 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Third Battle Invitational
14Andrew Edwards160.12026 · 2 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Third Battle Invitational
17Trent Lykling158.52026 · 2 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Third Battle Invitational
32Brad Lee Khaner150.62026 · 2 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Oatlands Invitational
(36)James Gallagher144.62026 · 2 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Third Battle Invitational
(40)Glenn Lobo129.22026 · 1 meetBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26
03West Springfield779-12-13-19-24 (25)(28)2026: 7
7 runners for West Springfield
West Springfield: the seven highest-rated runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team placeRunnerStat. ratingBasisEvidence
9Jonas Yiengst164.02026 · 3 meetsBest: VTCA Fall Classic, Sep 26 · also Adidas XC Challenge, Third Battle Invitational
12Josh Blanton161.32026 · 3 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Adidas XC Challenge, VTCA Fall Classic
13Mark Gaydos160.52026 · 3 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Adidas XC Challenge, VTCA Fall Classic
19Caleb James157.82026 · 3 meetsBest: Adidas XC Challenge, Sep 19 · also VTCA Fall Classic, Third Battle Invitational
24Kent Delarosa155.12026 · 3 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Adidas XC Challenge, VTCA Fall Classic
(25)Kyler Roberts154.62026 · 3 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Adidas XC Challenge, VTCA Fall Classic
(28)Elias Dean153.22026 · 2 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Adidas XC Challenge
04C.G. Woodson923-16-21-23-29 (34)(37)2026: 7
7 runners for C.G. Woodson
C.G. Woodson: the seven highest-rated runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team placeRunnerStat. ratingBasisEvidence
3Isaac Schools168.72026 · 4 meetsBest: Great American XC Festival, Oct 3 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Wolverine XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational
16Noah Leahy159.22026 · 4 meetsBest: Great American XC Festival, Oct 3 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Wolverine XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational
21Charles Penton156.02026 · 1 meetBest: Great American XC Festival, Oct 3
23Christian Kelly155.52026 · 4 meetsBest: Great American XC Festival, Oct 3 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Wolverine XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational
29Charlie Penton152.82026 · 2 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Wolverine XC Invitational
(34)Daniel Obenschain147.02026 · 4 meetsBest: Great American XC Festival, Oct 3 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Wolverine XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational
(37)Kieran Tennant143.72026 · 4 meetsBest: Great American XC Festival, Oct 3 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Wolverine XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational
05James W. Robinson10610-15-20-30-31 (33)(35)2026: 7
7 runners for James W. Robinson
James W. Robinson: the seven highest-rated runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team placeRunnerStat. ratingBasisEvidence
10Zachary Paredes163.92026 · 4 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Great American XC Festival, The VA XC Showcase
15Charlie Schoonover160.02026 · 4 meetsBest: The VA XC Showcase, Oct 17 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational, Great American XC Festival
20Bence Fulwiler156.02026 · 4 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Great American XC Festival, The VA XC Showcase
30Samuel Fortune151.62026 · 4 meetsBest: Great American XC Festival, Oct 3 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational, The VA XC Showcase
31Adam Fedok151.22026 · 2 meetsBest: Great American XC Festival, Oct 3 · also The VA XC Showcase
(33)William Zagurski147.82026 · 4 meetsBest: Great American XC Festival, Oct 3 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational, The VA XC Showcase
(35)Oliver Jones145.82026 · 2 meetsBest: The VA XC Showcase, Oct 17 · also Wolverine XC Invitational
06South County1532-8-42-50-51 (52)(54)2026: 7
7 runners for South County
South County: the seven highest-rated runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team placeRunnerStat. ratingBasisEvidence
2Alexander Featherly170.52026 · 3 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, VTCA Fall Classic
8Benjamin Kosowski164.42026 · 3 meetsBest: VTCA Fall Classic, Sep 26 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Third Battle Invitational
42Julian Siberon-Casablanca119.52026 · 2 meetsBest: VTCA Fall Classic, Sep 26 · also Wolverine XC Invitational
50Teddy Haubner106.52026 · 3 meetsBest: VTCA Fall Classic, Sep 26 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Octoberfest Invitational
51Matteos Tefferi104.62026 · 2 meetsBest: Octoberfest Invitational, Oct 3 · also Wolverine XC Invitational
(52)Taiga Bibb99.82026 · 3 meetsBest: VTCA Fall Classic, Sep 26 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Octoberfest Invitational
(54)Nathan Muzeyen97.62026 · 3 meetsBest: VTCA Fall Classic, Sep 26 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Octoberfest Invitational
07Alexandria City18822-38-39-43-46 (48)(49)2026: 7
7 runners for Alexandria City
Alexandria City: the seven highest-rated runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team placeRunnerStat. ratingBasisEvidence
22Jack Hersey155.72026 · 3 meetsBest: Octoberfest Invitational, Oct 3 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, The VA XC Showcase
38El Mehdi Manafi138.12026 · 3 meetsBest: Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Sep 4 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Octoberfest Invitational
39Connor Foley137.42026 · 3 meetsBest: Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Sep 4 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, The VA XC Showcase
43Giacomo Luke118.72026 · 2 meetsBest: The VA XC Showcase, Oct 17 · also Octoberfest Invitational
46Matthew Glade113.22026 · 2 meetsBest: The VA XC Showcase, Oct 17 · also Octoberfest Invitational
(48)Samuel Canel107.32026 · 2 meetsBest: The VA XC Showcase, Oct 17 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance
(49)Griffin Southworth107.02026 · 4 meetsBest: The VA XC Showcase, Oct 17 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Wolverine XC Invitational, Octoberfest Invitational
08Fairfax23041-44-45-47-53 (55)(56)2026: 7
7 runners for Fairfax
Fairfax: the seven highest-rated runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team placeRunnerStat. ratingBasisEvidence
41Christopher Ovando Torres122.12026 · 2 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Octoberfest Invitational
44Tristan Morgan118.42026 · 2 meetsBest: Octoberfest Invitational, Oct 3 · also Oatlands Invitational
45Micah Dejo115.22026 · 2 meetsBest: Octoberfest Invitational, Oct 3 · also Oatlands Invitational
47Ethan Zhang108.72026 · 2 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Octoberfest Invitational
53Bryce Kelsey99.02026 · 2 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Octoberfest Invitational
(55)Jeremiah Haynes91.32026 · 2 meetsBest: Octoberfest Invitational, Oct 3 · also Oatlands Invitational
(56)Beckett Hughes80.62026 · 1 meetBest: Octoberfest Invitational, Oct 3

A score adds the first five team places. Team places count only runners on ranked teams, so they can be lower than the overall rating order. Tied scores are broken by the sixth runner’s place, and a team with a sixth runner ranks ahead of one without.

TOP INDIVIDUALS · RATING ORDER · NOT A FINISH PREDICTION

Boys · top 56 rated runners

Boys top rated runners, 1 to 25
OrderRunner / teamStatistical RatingRating basisTeam status
01Daniel BlackWest Potomac172.72026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
02Alexander FeatherlySouth County170.52026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
03Isaac SchoolsC.G. Woodson168.72026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
04Matt WaltersLake Braddock167.62026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
05Nico DiffenbachWest Potomac167.22026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
06Calvin BensonLake Braddock165.52026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
07Grayson RichardsLake Braddock165.52026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
08Benjamin KosowskiSouth County164.42026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
09Jonas YiengstWest Springfield164.02026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
10Zachary ParedesJames W. Robinson163.92026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
11Maverick MagruderLake Braddock163.42026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
12Josh BlantonWest Springfield161.32026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
13Mark GaydosWest Springfield160.52026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
14Andrew EdwardsWest Potomac160.12026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
15Charlie SchoonoverJames W. Robinson160.02026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
16Noah LeahyC.G. Woodson159.22026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
17Trent LyklingWest Potomac158.52026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
18Noah DeLukeLake Braddock158.32026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
19Caleb JamesWest Springfield157.82026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
20Bence FulwilerJames W. Robinson156.02026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
21Charles PentonC.G. Woodson156.02026 · 1 meetIn team’s seven
22Jack HerseyAlexandria City155.72026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
23Christian KellyC.G. Woodson155.52026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
24Kent DelarosaWest Springfield155.12026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
25Kyler RobertsWest Springfield154.62026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
Show all 56 (31 more)Showing all 56 · show fewer
Boys top rated runners, 26 to 56
OrderRunner / teamStatistical RatingRating basisTeam status
26Tyson CulverLake Braddock153.62026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
27Marek MankaLake Braddock153.32026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
28Elias DeanWest Springfield153.22026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
29Charlie PentonC.G. Woodson152.82026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
30Samuel FortuneJames W. Robinson151.62026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
31Adam FedokJames W. Robinson151.22026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
32Brad Lee KhanerWest Potomac150.62026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
33William ZagurskiJames W. Robinson147.82026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
34Daniel ObenschainC.G. Woodson147.02026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
35Oliver JonesJames W. Robinson145.82026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
36James GallagherWest Potomac144.62026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
37Kieran TennantC.G. Woodson143.72026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
38El Mehdi ManafiAlexandria City138.12026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
39Connor FoleyAlexandria City137.42026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
40Glenn LoboWest Potomac129.22026 · 1 meetIn team’s seven
41Christopher Ovando TorresFairfax122.12026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
42Julian Siberon-CasablancaSouth County119.52026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
43Giacomo LukeAlexandria City118.72026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
44Tristan MorganFairfax118.42026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
45Micah DejoFairfax115.22026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
46Matthew GladeAlexandria City113.22026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
47Ethan ZhangFairfax108.72026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
48Samuel CanelAlexandria City107.32026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
49Griffin SouthworthAlexandria City107.02026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
50Teddy HaubnerSouth County106.52026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
51Matteos TefferiSouth County104.62026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
52Taiga BibbSouth County99.82026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
53Bryce KelseyFairfax99.02026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
54Nathan MuzeyenSouth County97.62026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
55Jeremiah HaynesFairfax91.32026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
56Beckett HughesFairfax80.62026 · 1 meetIn team’s seven

Order is by Statistical Rating among rated runners in this projection’s field, including runners on unranked teams. The coverage notes describe the field. Runners with the same shown rating stay in unrounded order.

UNRANKED TEAMS · BOYS

0 teams with fewer than five rated runners

Unranked means not scored, not last. Their rated runners still appear in the individual order.

READ BEFORE USING

What this projection is not.

Rank. Projected team order, lowest score first. Tied scores are broken by the sixth runner’s place.Score. The sum of the team’s first five team-scoring places. Lower is better.Scoring order. Team places as on a timing sheet: the first five add up to the score. The sixth and seventh, in parentheses, can displace other teams’ runners.Team place. Place counting only runners on ranked teams, so it can be lower than the overall rating order. Places in parentheses can displace other teams’ runners.Statistical Rating. The runner’s rating on the meet season’s points scale, not a predicted time on this course. Shown to 0.1 point (1 point = 3 s), with a dash below 0.Evidence. The meet and date behind the rating, and any other current-season meets.Coverage. The meet’s registered teams by sex: how many there are, how many rated runners their rosters hold, what it rests on, and how many teams can be scored.Boys. Counts for the boys’ registered teams.Girls. Counts for the girls’ registered teams.Team. A registered team with at least five rated runners. Teams with fewer are not scored, rather than ranked last.Runners by basis. How many of the team’s listed runners are rated from this season’s races. Every rating on this page is a season best; none is carried over from an earlier season.Runner. A runner on a registered team, one of the team’s seven highest-rated runners.Rating basis. What the rating rests on: the runner’s best rated race this season, at identified meets. Every rating on this page rests on this.Order. Position by Statistical Rating among rated runners in this projection’s field, including runners on unranked teams. The coverage notes describe the field. Not a finish prediction.Runner / team. The runner and the registered team whose roster they are on.Team status. Whether the runner is in the team’s scoring seven or on an unranked team with fewer than five rated runners. A projection that includes runners beyond a team’s seven marks them as outside the seven.