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Oct 23, 2024 · Eastville, VA

eastern shore district championship 2024

13400 · Historical 2024 results

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Checked against TullyRunners at 9 held-out meets, 2024's ratings sit a median of 1.7 points (boys) and 4.4 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

1 of 1 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

BOYS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Varsity Boys 5000 Meter Run

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D

26 of 33 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −31.7 s course and conditions −8.3 s in-season fitness −23.4 sCourse constant 486.81 (487)Race constant 483.10 (483)

14 used anchors± 15.5 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 488.695Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 14 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 14, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Aaron O'Shea · Arcadia: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL 2A Region A Championship (Nov 4) · and 2 more
  2. 2 Julio Chavez · Nandua: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL 2A Region A Championship (Nov 4)
  3. 3 Dickinson Tayloe · Northampton: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL 1A Region A Championships (Nov 7)
  4. 4 Eli Philpot · Northampton: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL 1A Region A Championships (Nov 7)
  5. 6 Chris Lopez-Perez · Nandua: VHSL 2A Region A Championship (Nov 4)
  6. 9 Hudson Taylor · Northampton: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL 1A Region A Championships (Nov 7)
  7. 10 Aaiden Bowman · Northampton: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL 1A Region A Championships (Nov 7)
  8. 17 Jesus Ortiz · Arcadia: VHSL 2A Region A Championship (Nov 4) · 52nd Salisbury University HS Tidewater Fall Classic (Oct 2)
  9. 20 Allen Zarate · Nandua: VHSL 2A Region A Championship (Nov 4)
  10. 21 Camden Lewis · Nandua: VHSL 2A Region A Championship (Nov 4)
  11. 22 Porter Buyea · Arcadia: VHSL 2A Region A Championship (Nov 4) · 52nd Salisbury University HS Tidewater Fall Classic (Oct 2)
  12. 23 Lucas Calvetti · Nandua: VHSL 2A Region A Championship (Nov 4)
  13. 24 Kevin Guitierez · Nandua: VHSL 2A Region A Championship (Nov 4)
  14. 25 Stewart Guilarte · Arcadia: 52nd Salisbury University HS Tidewater Fall Classic (Oct 2)
Boys results, places shown 1 to 33 of 33 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Aaron O'SheaArcadia · SRFinish 17:24.017:24.017:37.6136.1
2Julio ChavezNandua · SOFinish 18:19.018:19.018:33.4117.6
3Dickinson TayloeNorthampton · JRFinish 18:20.018:20.018:34.4117.2
4Eli PhilpotNorthampton · JRFinish 18:22.018:22.018:36.4116.6
5Kendrick CollinsNorthampton · SOFinish 19:02.019:02.019:16.9103.1
6Chris Lopez-PerezNandua · JRFinish 19:29.019:29.019:44.393.9
7Alex VacaNorthampton · Grade not recordedFinish 19:43.019:43.019:58.589.2
8Fernando PalacioNorthampton · JRFinish 19:45.019:45.020:00.588.5
9Hudson TaylorNorthampton · FRFinish 19:48.019:48.020:03.587.5
10Aaiden BowmanNorthampton · FRFinish 19:49.019:49.020:04.587.2
11Juan PalacioNorthampton · SOFinish 19:53.019:53.020:08.685.8
12Arnold DestineNandua · Grade not recordedFinish 20:43.020:43.020:59.268.9
13Santino SeekersNorthampton · FRFinish 21:20.021:20.021:36.756.5
14Tobias DonnellNandua · JRFinish 21:29.021:29.021:45.853.4
15Reegan McGeeNorthampton · JRFinish 21:41.021:41.021:58.049.4
16Diego SantosArcadia · Grade not recordedFinish 22:06.022:06.022:23.340.9
17Jesus OrtizArcadia · SRFinish 22:36.022:36.022:53.730.8
18Aaden YoungNorthampton · Grade not recordedFinish 22:48.022:48.023:05.926.7
19Raymundo Castanada-CovaNorthampton · SOFinish 22:52.022:52.023:09.925.4
20Allen ZarateNandua · SOFinish 23:06.023:06.023:24.120.7
21Camden LewisNandua · SRFinish 23:09.023:09.023:27.119.6
22Porter BuyeaArcadia · FRFinish 23:10.023:10.023:28.219.3
23Lucas CalvettiNandua · SRFinish 23:22.023:22.023:40.315.3
24Kevin GuitierezNandua · SOFinish 23:31.023:31.023:49.412.2
25Stewart GuilarteArcadia · SOFinish 23:31.023:31.023:49.412.2
26Ervin EscalanteNandua · SOFinish 23:36.023:36.023:54.510.5
27Adrian ReyesNorthampton · Grade not recordedFinish 1487:00.01487:00.0UnavailableUnavailable
28Jacob DuffmanSchool not recorded · FRFinish UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
29Daniel AlvaradoNorthampton · SOFinish 1506:00.01506:00.0UnavailableUnavailable
30Henry HigghabottomArcadia · Grade not recordedFinish 1562:00.01562:00.0UnavailableUnavailable
31Jeremiah WhartonNandua · SOFinish 1569:00.01569:00.0UnavailableUnavailable
32Nick Saquic-ChanNandua · SOFinish 1591:00.01591:00.0UnavailableUnavailable
33Marvin Juan-RuizArcadia · FRFinish 1623:00.01623:00.0UnavailableUnavailable

6 rows: time outside the rated range.

eastern shore district championship 2024, Oct 23, 2024

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Not rated. The finish time is outside the range we rate (12:00–45:00 for a 5K), so it has no adjustment or rating.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.