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Oct 30, 2024 · Grundy, VA

Black Diamond District Championship

Enoch's Branch Park · Historical 2024 results

Other years: 2023

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Checked against TullyRunners at 9 held-out meets, 2024's ratings sit a median of 1.7 points (boys) and 4.4 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

2 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

BOYS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

HS Boys 5000 Meters

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C

14 of 14 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −6.4 s course and conditions +17.5 s in-season fitness −23.9 sCourse constant 496.64 (497)Race constant 492.70 (493)

13 used anchors± 8.9 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 488.695Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 13 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 13, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Keyston Hartford · Grundy: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Region 1D Championships (Nov 6) · and 4 more
  2. 2 Jacob Ray · Council: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Region 1D Championships (Nov 6) · and 4 more
  3. 3 Logan Boyd · Grundy: Region 1D Championships (Nov 6) · Don Cumbow Invitational (Oct 23) · and 2 more
  4. 4 Jacob Fields · Grundy: Region 1D Championships (Nov 6) · Don Cumbow Invitational (Oct 23) · and 2 more
  5. 5 Cayden Riddle · Grundy: Region 1D Championships (Nov 6) · Don Cumbow Invitational (Oct 23) · and 2 more
  6. 6 Kaden Looney · Grundy: Region 1D Championships (Nov 6) · Don Cumbow Invitational (Oct 23) · and 2 more
  7. 7 Jesse Ray · Council: Region 1D Championships (Nov 6) · Oxbow Lake Trail Invitational (Oct 16) · and 2 more
  8. 8 Riley Hess · Council: Region 1D Championships (Nov 6) · Don Cumbow Invitational (Oct 23) · and 3 more
  9. 9 Daniel Rife · Hurley: Region 1D Championships (Nov 6) · Through the Pines Lebanon Invitational (Aug 28)
  10. 10 Ryder Anderson · Grundy: Region 1D Championships (Nov 6) · Don Cumbow Invitational (Oct 23) · and 2 more
  11. 11 Evan Brown · Council: Region 1D Championships (Nov 6) · Don Cumbow Invitational (Oct 23) · and 3 more
  12. 12 Jordan Fields · Grundy: Region 1D Championships (Nov 6) · UVA Wise High School Invitational (Sep 18)
  13. 13 Degan Cook · Twin Valley: Region 1D Championships (Nov 6) · Don Cumbow Invitational (Oct 23)
Boys results, places shown 1 to 14 of 14 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Keyston HartfordGrundy · JRFinish 16:20.916:20.916:12.6164.5
2Jacob RayCouncil · JRFinish 18:47.918:47.918:38.4115.9
3Logan BoydGrundy · SRFinish 19:57.819:57.819:47.792.8
4Jacob FieldsGrundy · JRFinish 21:08.021:08.020:57.369.6
5Cayden RiddleGrundy · SRFinish 22:08.522:08.521:57.349.6
6Kaden LooneyGrundy · SRFinish 22:55.722:55.722:44.234.0
7Jesse RayCouncil · SOFinish 23:39.523:39.523:27.619.5
8Riley HessCouncil · SRFinish 23:57.923:57.923:45.813.4
9Daniel RifeHurley · FRFinish 24:25.424:25.424:13.14.3
10Ryder AndersonGrundy · JRFinish 26:11.226:11.225:58.0—
11Evan BrownCouncil · SRFinish 27:31.527:31.527:17.6—
12Jordan FieldsGrundy · JRFinish 29:26.529:26.529:11.6—
13Degan CookTwin Valley · JRFinish 29:26.529:26.529:11.7—
14Westen DeelGrundy · FRFinish 38:20.938:20.938:01.6—

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

HS Girls 5000 Meters

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B

15 of 15 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −12.2 s course and conditions +13.6 s in-season fitness −25.7 sCourse constant 501.75 (502)Race constant 494.79 (495)

15 used anchors± 5.8 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.063Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 15 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 15, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Ella Rasnake · Council: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Region 1D Championships (Nov 6) · and 4 more
  2. 2 Jayda Hilton · Hurley: Region 1D Championships (Nov 6) · UVA Wise High School Invitational (Sep 18) · and 1 more
  3. 3 Destany Armendariz · Grundy: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Region 1D Championships (Nov 6) · and 1 more
  4. 4 Kaydence Jackson · Hurley: Region 1D Championships (Nov 6) · Through the Pines Lebanon Invitational (Aug 28)
  5. 5 Jewel Hammonds · Hurley: Region 1D Championships (Nov 6) · Through the Pines Lebanon Invitational (Aug 28)
  6. 6 Ava Ward · Grundy: Region 1D Championships (Nov 6) · Through the Pines Lebanon Invitational (Aug 28)
  7. 7 Chelsi Riffe · Grundy: Region 1D Championships (Nov 6) · Don Cumbow Invitational (Oct 23) · and 2 more
  8. 8 Alyssa Stacy · Grundy: Region 1D Championships (Nov 6) · Don Cumbow Invitational (Oct 23)
  9. 9 Ella Robinson · Grundy: Region 1D Championships (Nov 6) · Don Cumbow Invitational (Oct 23) · and 2 more
  10. 10 Raegan Boyd · Grundy: Region 1D Championships (Nov 6) · Don Cumbow Invitational (Oct 23) · and 1 more
  11. 11 Emily Mullins · Hurley: Region 1D Championships (Nov 6)
  12. 12 Emily Lockhardt · Hurley: Region 1D Championships (Nov 6) · Through the Pines Lebanon Invitational (Aug 28)
  13. 13 Emma O'Quinn · Grundy: Region 1D Championships (Nov 6) · UVA Wise High School Invitational (Sep 18) · and 1 more
  14. 14 Tiffany Deskins · Hurley: Region 1D Championships (Nov 6) · Through the Pines Lebanon Invitational (Aug 28)
  15. 15 Savannah Childress · Grundy: Don Cumbow Invitational (Oct 23) · UVA Wise High School Invitational (Sep 18)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 15 of 15 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Ella RasnakeCouncil · JRFinish 20:44.920:44.920:39.379.0
2Jayda HiltonHurley · SRFinish 23:59.323:59.323:52.814.5
3Destany ArmendarizGrundy · JRFinish 24:16.624:16.624:10.18.7
4Kaydence JacksonHurley · SRFinish 25:43.725:43.725:36.7—
5Jewel HammondsHurley · JRFinish 27:55.827:55.827:48.2—
6Ava WardGrundy · SOFinish 28:30.828:30.828:23.1—
7Chelsi RiffeGrundy · SRFinish 29:42.029:42.029:34.0—
8Alyssa StacyGrundy · SOFinish 30:25.330:25.330:17.1—
9Ella RobinsonGrundy · FRFinish 30:55.130:55.130:46.8—
10Raegan BoydGrundy · FRFinish 31:14.331:14.331:05.9—
11Emily MullinsHurley · SOFinish 31:40.731:40.731:32.2—
12Emily LockhardtHurley · SOFinish 34:04.534:04.533:55.3—
13Emma O'QuinnGrundy · JRFinish 34:47.234:47.234:37.9—
14Tiffany DeskinsHurley · SOFinish 36:51.336:51.336:41.4—
15Savannah ChildressGrundy · FRFinish 38:08.738:08.737:58.4—

Black Diamond District Championship, Oct 30, 2024

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.