NovaRunners
All meets

Oct 25, 2023 · Grundy, VA

Black Diamond District Championship

Enoch's Branch Park · Historical 2023 results

Other years: 2024

Report a problem with this meet

Checked against TullyRunners at 8 held-out meets, 2023's ratings sit a median of 2.1 points (boys) and 7.1 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

2 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

BOYS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

XC BDD Championship Men's 5000 Meters

Copy link to Boys varsity
E

13 of 13 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +14.8 s course and conditions +36.5 s in-season fitness −21.8 sCourse constant 504.45 (504)Race constant 502.28 (502)

13 used anchors± 25.8 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 489.934Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 13 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 13, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Keyston Hartford · Grundy: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 2 more
  2. 2 Brayden Conaway · Grundy: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1)
  3. 3 Jacob Ray · Council: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 1 more
  4. 4 Logan Boyd · Grundy: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 2 more
  5. 5 Riley Hess · Council: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 1 more
  6. 6 Wyatt Bush · Grundy: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 2 more
  7. 7 Cayden Riddle · Grundy: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 2 more
  8. 8 Evan Brown · Council: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 1 more
  9. 9 Degan Cook · Twin Valley: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1)
  10. 10 Mason Boyd · Grundy: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1)
  11. 11 Nicky Stiltner · Council: Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5)
  12. 12 Jesse Ray · Council: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1)
  13. 13 Tyln Owens · Council: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1)
Boys results, places shown 1 to 13 of 13 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Keyston HartfordGrundy · SOFinish 17:28.017:28.017:01.0149.6
2Brayden ConawayGrundy · SOFinish 19:37.119:37.119:06.8107.7
3Jacob RayCouncil · SOFinish 20:10.920:10.919:39.796.7
4Logan BoydGrundy · JRFinish 20:52.020:52.020:19.883.3
5Riley HessCouncil · JRFinish 22:09.022:09.021:34.858.3
6Wyatt BushGrundy · JRFinish 22:46.122:46.122:10.946.3
7Cayden RiddleGrundy · JRFinish 23:58.723:58.723:21.722.7
8Evan BrownCouncil · JRFinish 26:48.126:48.126:06.7—
9Degan CookTwin Valley · SOFinish 27:21.727:21.726:39.4—
10Mason BoydGrundy · FRFinish 27:54.527:54.527:11.4—
11Nicky StiltnerCouncil · JRFinish 28:00.528:00.527:17.3—
12Jesse RayCouncil · FRFinish 39:54.639:54.638:52.9—
13Tyln OwensCouncil · FRFinish 42:06.242:06.241:01.2—

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Women's 5000 Meters

Copy link to Girls varsity
D

14 of 14 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +28.3 s course and conditions +51.9 s in-season fitness −23.6 sCourse constant 520.00 (520)Race constant 517.37 (517)

14 used anchors± 15.6 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 494.161Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 14 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 14, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Ella Rasnake · Council: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 2 more
  2. 2 Jayda Hilton · Hurley: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1)
  3. 3 Destany Armendariz · Grundy: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 1 more
  4. 4 Kaydence Jackson · Hurley: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1)
  5. 5 Makayla Payne · Grundy: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1)
  6. 6 Anastasia Rife · Hurley: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1)
  7. 7 Emily Mullins · Hurley: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1)
  8. 8 Alyssa Stacy · Grundy: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 1 more
  9. 9 Jewel Hammonds · Hurley: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1)
  10. 10 Emily Lockhardt · Hurley: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1)
  11. 11 Chelsi Riffe · Grundy: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · UVA Wise High School Invitational (Sep 20)
  12. 12 Kami Roark · Grundy: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · UVA Wise High School Invitational (Sep 20)
  13. 13 Emma O'Quinn · Grundy: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 1 more
  14. 14 Alysia Rife · Hurley: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 14 of 14 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Ella RasnakeCouncil · SOFinish 21:16.421:16.420:28.884.6
2Jayda HiltonHurley · JRFinish 23:22.323:22.322:30.044.2
3Destany ArmendarizGrundy · SOFinish 24:34.324:34.323:39.321.1
4Kaydence JacksonHurley · JRFinish 24:59.024:59.024:03.213.1
5Makayla PayneGrundy · SRFinish 26:40.926:40.925:41.2—
6Anastasia RifeHurley · SRFinish 29:49.329:49.328:42.6—
7Emily MullinsHurley · FRFinish 30:14.330:14.329:06.7—
8Alyssa StacyGrundy · FRFinish 32:01.732:01.730:50.0—
9Jewel HammondsHurley · SOFinish 32:23.432:23.431:10.9—
10Emily LockhardtHurley · FRFinish 33:21.733:21.732:07.1—
11Chelsi RiffeGrundy · JRFinish 33:25.933:25.932:11.1—
12Kami RoarkGrundy · FRFinish 33:46.933:46.932:31.4—
13Emma O'QuinnGrundy · SOFinish 37:23.337:23.335:59.6—
14Alysia RifeHurley · SOFinish 40:55.240:55.239:23.7—

Black Diamond District Championship, Oct 25, 2023

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.