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Oct 25, 2023 · Bristol, VA

southwest district championships 2023

Sugar Hollow Park 3 Mile Course · Historical 2023 results

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Checked against TullyRunners at 8 held-out meets, 2023's ratings sit a median of 2.1 points (boys) and 7.1 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

2 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

BOYS · VARSITY · 4,828 M

Boys Three Mile Run

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C

34 of 34 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −28.8 s course and conditions −7.9 s in-season fitness −21.0 sCourse constant 487.68 (488)Race constant 485.77 (486)

33 used anchors± 7.0 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 489.934Modeled distance 4,828 m

Adjusted from 33 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 33, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Eli Taylor · Lebanon: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · and 5 more
  2. 2 Derek Mitchell · Lebanon: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · and 5 more
  3. 3 Alec Deckard · Lebanon: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · and 5 more
  4. 4 Drake Young · Tazewell: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · and 7 more
  5. 5 Domenico Bruzzo-Morello · Marion Sr: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · and 5 more
  6. 6 Carter Dillon · Lebanon: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  7. 7 Gamble Stevens · Virginia Bearcats: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  8. 8 Elijah Wheatley · Marion Sr: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 5 more
  9. 9 Blake Chafin · Lebanon: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · and 5 more
  10. 10 Carter Price · Virginia Bearcats: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 4 more
  11. 11 Alex Armbrister · Marion Sr: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 5 more
  12. 12 Emmitt Breeding · Lebanon: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · and 5 more
  13. 13 Charlie Brown · Lebanon: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · and 5 more
  14. 14 Calvin Dowell · Tazewell: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · Tazewell Cross Country Invitational (Oct 12) · and 4 more
  15. 15 Mason Harrington · Virginia Bearcats: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 4 more
  16. 16 Ezekiel Postell · Virginia Bearcats: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 3 more
  17. 17 Wyatt Spencer · Richlands: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · Tazewell Cross Country Invitational (Oct 12) · and 3 more
  18. 18 Cooper Hurst · Richlands: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · Tazewell Cross Country Invitational (Oct 12) · and 2 more
  19. 19 Coen Pratt · Virginia Bearcats: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 3 more
  20. 20 Wyatt Hall · Marion Sr: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 4 more
  21. 21 Will Burkett · Marion Sr: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 4 more
  22. 22 Kyle England · Richlands: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · Tazewell Cross Country Invitational (Oct 12) · and 3 more
  23. 23 Michael Guzy · Graham: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · Tazewell Cross Country Invitational (Oct 12) · and 3 more
  24. 24 Elijah Fricker · Virginia Bearcats: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 4 more
  25. 25 Braden Greer · Tazewell: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · Tazewell Cross Country Invitational (Oct 12) · and 6 more
  26. 26 Justin Mai · Virginia Bearcats: Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9) · and 1 more
  27. 27 Gage Stamper · Marion Sr: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · Maroon Tide Invitational (Sep 20) · and 1 more
  28. 28 Wesley Jones · Graham: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · Tazewell Cross Country Invitational (Oct 12) · and 5 more
  29. 29 Collin Creggar · Marion Sr: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 5 more
  30. 30 Breadon Sawyers · Tazewell: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · Tazewell Cross Country Invitational (Oct 12) · and 2 more
  31. 31 Jack Clem · Richlands: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · Tazewell Cross Country Invitational (Oct 12) · and 3 more
  32. 32 Samuel Horn · Richlands: Tazewell Cross Country Invitational (Oct 12) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 2 more
  33. 33 Jaxon McGhee · Graham: Tazewell Cross Country Invitational (Oct 12) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 4 more
Boys results, places shown 1 to 34 of 34 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Eli TaylorLebanon · SRFinish 16:48.016:48.016:58.6150.4
2Derek MitchellLebanon · SRFinish 16:50.016:50.017:00.6149.7
3Alec DeckardLebanon · SRFinish 16:55.116:55.117:05.8148.0
4Drake YoungTazewell · SOFinish 17:03.417:03.417:14.2145.2
5Domenico Bruzzo-MorelloMarion Sr · JRFinish 17:42.217:42.217:53.4132.1
6Carter DillonLebanon · SRFinish 17:52.917:52.918:04.3128.5
7Gamble StevensVirginia Bearcats · SOFinish 17:57.017:57.018:08.3127.2
8Elijah WheatleyMarion Sr · JRFinish 17:57.917:57.918:09.3126.8
9Blake ChafinLebanon · SOFinish 17:58.817:58.818:10.2126.5
10Carter PriceVirginia Bearcats · SOFinish 18:24.418:24.418:36.1117.9
11Alex ArmbristerMarion Sr · JRFinish 18:39.218:39.218:51.0112.9
12Emmitt BreedingLebanon · SRFinish 18:58.818:58.819:10.9106.3
13Charlie BrownLebanon · FRFinish 19:02.719:02.719:14.7105.0
14Calvin DowellTazewell · SOFinish 19:02.819:02.819:14.9105.0
15Mason HarringtonVirginia Bearcats · JRFinish 19:06.519:06.519:18.6103.7
16Ezekiel PostellVirginia Bearcats · FRFinish 19:34.019:34.019:46.494.5
17Wyatt SpencerRichlands · JRFinish 19:36.119:36.119:48.593.8
18Cooper HurstRichlands · SOFinish 19:49.319:49.320:01.889.3
19Coen PrattVirginia Bearcats · SRFinish 20:10.720:10.720:23.582.1
20Wyatt HallMarion Sr · SRFinish 20:30.620:30.620:43.675.4
21Will BurkettMarion Sr · JRFinish 20:42.620:42.620:55.871.3
22Kyle EnglandRichlands · SRFinish 20:50.420:50.421:03.668.7
23Michael GuzyGraham · SRFinish 20:52.020:52.021:05.368.2
24Elijah FrickerVirginia Bearcats · SRFinish 20:54.520:54.521:07.867.3
25Braden GreerTazewell · FRFinish 22:18.622:18.622:32.839.0
26Justin MaiVirginia Bearcats · JRFinish 22:28.722:28.722:42.935.6
27Gage StamperMarion Sr · JRFinish 22:51.522:51.523:05.928.0
28Wesley JonesGraham · FRFinish 23:25.723:25.723:40.616.4
29Collin CreggarMarion Sr · JRFinish 23:45.223:45.224:00.29.9
30Breadon SawyersTazewell · JRFinish 23:51.423:51.424:06.57.8
31Jack ClemRichlands · SOFinish 24:15.224:15.224:30.6—
32Samuel HornRichlands · SOFinish 26:13.726:13.726:30.3—
33Jaxon McGheeGraham · FRFinish 29:02.029:02.029:20.4—
34Conner WattsVirginia Bearcats · JRFinish 31:19.331:19.331:39.1—

GIRLS · VARSITY · 4,828 M

Girls Three Mile Run

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C

22 of 22 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −8.5 s course and conditions +14.5 s in-season fitness −22.9 sCourse constant 500.82 (501)Race constant 498.40 (498)

22 used anchors± 9.8 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 494.161Modeled distance 4,828 m

Adjusted from 22 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 22, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Abigail Rhudy · Tazewell: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · and 7 more
  2. 2 Shaylen Cannon · Virginia Bearcats: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · and 5 more
  3. 3 Ruby Hoerter · Marion Sr: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · and 6 more
  4. 4 Molly Jones · Graham: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · Tazewell Cross Country Invitational (Oct 12) · and 5 more
  5. 5 Matisyn Hutton · Virginia Bearcats: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · and 2 more
  6. 6 Tori Kariuki · Virginia Bearcats: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · and 5 more
  7. 7 Layla Bebber · Lebanon: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · UVA Wise High School Invitational (Sep 20)
  8. 8 Katie Jones · Lebanon: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  9. 9 Aubreigh Compton · Richlands: Tazewell Cross Country Invitational (Oct 12) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 2 more
  10. 10 Brynlee Woods · Lebanon: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1)
  11. 11 Amanda Blevins · Graham: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · Tazewell Cross Country Invitational (Oct 12) · and 4 more
  12. 12 Shaley McClain · Virginia Bearcats: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  13. 13 Mandi Regin · Virginia Bearcats: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · and 5 more
  14. 14 Brooke Ibert · Lebanon: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · UVA Wise High School Invitational (Sep 20) · and 2 more
  15. 15 Alexa Blevins · Marion Sr: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 5 more
  16. 16 Willow Dunford · Lebanon: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 3 more
  17. 17 Emily Hash · Marion Sr: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 5 more
  18. 18 Hannah Brooks · Graham: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · Tazewell Cross Country Invitational (Oct 12) · and 3 more
  19. 19 La'Mya Bennett · Virginia Bearcats: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · and 5 more
  20. 20 Gracie Widener · Marion Sr: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 3 more
  21. 21 Lila Williams · Graham: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 4 more
  22. 22 Leah Williams · Graham: VHSL 2A Region D Championships (Nov 1)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 22 of 22 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Abigail RhudyTazewell · JRFinish 19:12.419:12.419:03.7112.9
2Shaylen CannonVirginia Bearcats · SRFinish 21:49.121:49.121:39.261.1
3Ruby HoerterMarion Sr · JRFinish 23:09.723:09.722:59.234.4
4Molly JonesGraham · JRFinish 23:47.023:47.023:36.222.1
5Matisyn HuttonVirginia Bearcats · SRFinish 24:09.924:09.923:58.914.5
6Tori KariukiVirginia Bearcats · JRFinish 24:34.924:34.924:23.76.3
7Layla BebberLebanon · JRFinish 26:01.626:01.625:49.8—
8Katie JonesLebanon · SRFinish 26:29.426:29.426:17.4—
9Aubreigh ComptonRichlands · FRFinish 27:09.927:09.926:57.5—
10Brynlee WoodsLebanon · SOFinish 27:15.027:15.027:02.6—
11Amanda BlevinsGraham · SRFinish 27:22.727:22.727:10.2—
12Shaley McClainVirginia Bearcats · FRFinish 28:25.328:25.328:12.3—
13Mandi ReginVirginia Bearcats · FRFinish 28:27.828:27.828:14.8—
14Brooke IbertLebanon · JRFinish 28:58.328:58.328:45.1—
15Alexa BlevinsMarion Sr · JRFinish 28:58.428:58.428:45.2—
16Willow DunfordLebanon · JRFinish 30:45.730:45.730:31.7—
17Emily HashMarion Sr · JRFinish 30:53.830:53.830:39.7—
18Hannah BrooksGraham · SRFinish 31:12.631:12.630:58.4—
19La'Mya BennettVirginia Bearcats · SOFinish 31:37.831:37.831:23.4—
20Gracie WidenerMarion Sr · JRFinish 31:49.931:49.931:35.4—
21Lila WilliamsGraham · FRFinish 36:47.136:47.136:30.4—
22Leah WilliamsGraham · JRFinish 43:36.043:36.043:16.2—

southwest district championships 2023, Oct 25, 2023

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.