NOVARUNNERS PROJECTIONS
VHSL Class 6 State Championship 2026
VHSL Class 6 State Championship, Sat Nov 7, 2026, Leesburg. Team standings projected from ratings, with each rating’s basis in view where it rests on a meet.
PROJECTION · UNOFFICIAL
Calculated Oct 29.
A deterministic projection, not a result. Each qualifying team’s seven highest-rated runners and the individual qualifiers are placed in rating order in one combined field per sex; the teams are then scored like a cross-country meet, with individuals taking no team place. It predicts no times and gives no probabilities.
COVERAGE
Who is rated, and from what.
Each runner’s rating is their best 2026 Statistical Rating on the day among their rated district and regional championship races, not their season best: varsity races only, middle-school runners left out, lower-tier races dropped. The field comes from the regional championships the coverage notes name, matched to that rating by athlete ID; a runner without a rated 2026 district or regional race is counted but not listed. How on-the-day ratings work
| Coverage | Boys | Girls |
|---|---|---|
| Qualifying teams | 12 | 12 |
| Individual qualifiers | 20 | 20 |
| Rated runners in the field | 104 | 104 |
| Rated district or regional races (one · two or more) | 10444 · 60 | 10439 · 65 |
| Teams ranked (five or more rated) | 12 of 12 | 12 of 12 |
| Teams unranked | 0 | 0 |
| Statistical Rating K (2026 scale) | 488.025 | 490.690 |
Ratings are each runner’s best 2026 on-the-day rating among their rated district and regional championship races (v15, as of 2026-10-29), not their season best. Field: the top 3 teams from the Region 6A, Region 6B, Region 6C and Region 6D championships (Oct 24, Oct 28 and Oct 29) and from each, the first 5 finishers not on a qualifying team, who run as individuals. Each qualifying team runs its 7 highest-rated runners among those who ran for it at its regional championship; the rest of its regional squad is not in the field. Individuals take no team place, so they never score or displace. Rated district and regional races per runner, over every runner the qualifying rule gives (each qualifying team’s squad and the individual qualifiers), boys: 60 with two or more, 44 with one, 0 with none; girls: 65 with two or more, 39 with one, 0 with none. A runner with none is not listed. The meet’s team list was not yet posted, so the field follows the qualifying rule alone. Regular-season races are not used; the 22 rated district and regional championships are on the meets page.
TEAM STANDINGS · COMBINED HYPOTHETICAL FIELD
Girls · Class 6 State 2026 projection
| Rank | Team | Score | Scoring order | Runners by basis | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | James W. Robinson | 51 | 3-5-6-12-25 (40)(42) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for James W. Robinson
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 02 | West Springfield | 68 | 1-9-11-16-31 (35)(36) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for West Springfield
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 03 | C.G. Woodson | 85 | 4-7-14-28-32 (44)(50) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for C.G. Woodson
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 04 | Yorktown | 98 | 2-19-22-26-29 (37)(51) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Yorktown
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 05 | South Lakes | 134 | 8-21-24-38-43 (45)(64) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for South Lakes
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 06 | Washington-Liberty | 147 | 13-15-20-47-52 (60)(66) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Washington-Liberty
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 07 | Colonial Forge | 165 | 10-17-18-53-67 (70)(71) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Colonial Forge
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 08 | Patriot | 176 | 23-27-33-34-59 (62)(76) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Patriot
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 09 | Gainesville | 235 | 30-46-48-55-56 (72)(73) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Gainesville
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Grassfield | 248 | 39-41-49-58-61 (65)(77) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Grassfield
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Cosby | 345 | 54-63-69-78-81 (82)(83) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Cosby
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | J.R. Tucker | 353 | 57-68-74-75-79 (80)(84) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for J.R. Tucker
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A score adds the first five team places. Team places count only runners on ranked teams, so they can be lower than the overall rating order. Tied scores are broken by the sixth runner’s place, and a team with a sixth runner ranks ahead of one without.
TOP INDIVIDUALS · RATING ORDER · NOT A FINISH PREDICTION
Girls · top 100 rated runners
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Allie HornerWest Springfield | 145.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 02 | Abigail MesfinOakton | 141.4 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 03 | Molly HardwickYorktown | 135.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 04 | Jaidyn BudayMcLean | 135.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 05 | Petra GruendelJames W. Robinson | 131.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 06 | Annie PrzydzialC.G. Woodson | 129.4 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 07 | Karina BirdJames W. Robinson | 129.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 08 | Alexandra BirdJames W. Robinson | 125.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 09 | Sophie MeisnerAlexandria City | 123.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 10 | Hadley VanekC.G. Woodson | 118.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 11 | Lauren UhleMountain View | 114.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 12 | Quinn JacksonSouth Lakes | 114.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 13 | Reagan LeoneWest Springfield | 112.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 14 | Lauren AckersonColonial Forge | 112.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 15 | Padma ReillyC.D. Hylton | 112.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 16 | Nyla CulverLake Braddock | 111.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 17 | Quinn McGlincheyAlexandria City | 109.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 18 | Anna JohnsonWest Springfield | 108.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 19 | Juliet LordJames W. Robinson | 108.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 20 | Raina WittrockLangley | 108.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 21 | Maxine BerensFalls Church | 107.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 22 | Susanna RichardWashington-Liberty | 107.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 23 | Brianna PritchardWestfield | 106.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 24 | Jacklyn GillandersC.G. Woodson | 106.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 25 | Sophia FinlanLake Braddock | 106.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
Show all 100 (75 more)Showing all 100 · show fewer
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Allison ErvinWashington-Liberty | 106.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 27 | Sydney WalkerMcLean | 106.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 28 | Caitlin FisherWest Springfield | 102.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 29 | Victoria HallColonial Forge | 101.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 30 | Kate BignellColonial Forge | 101.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 31 | Ali MathewsYorktown | 101.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 32 | Maddie BrysWashington-Liberty | 99.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 33 | Olivia LeveySouth Lakes | 99.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 34 | Ayla MehmoodYorktown | 98.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 35 | Aadina IbrahimiPatriot | 96.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 36 | Charlotte CaptainSouth Lakes | 95.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 37 | Ciara JensenJames W. Robinson | 95.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 38 | Keeley GardnerYorktown | 95.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 39 | Rachel FillmorePatriot | 95.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 40 | Rochelle GaryBrooke Point | 94.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 41 | Violet ConklinC.G. Woodson | 94.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 42 | Cecilia FloomYorktown | 94.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 43 | Lucy HarlowGainesville | 94.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 44 | Zoie CollinsWest Springfield | 93.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 45 | Emily WilsonMountain View | 91.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 46 | Carleigh DevlinC.G. Woodson | 90.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 47 | Sienna DoudsPatriot | 89.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 48 | Kaleigh PodkowkaPatriot | 88.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 49 | Olivia CollinsWest Springfield | 88.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 50 | Audrey YiengstWest Springfield | 88.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 51 | Vivian FatourosYorktown | 88.4 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 52 | Emily WigginsColgan | 88.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 53 | Carly NavasSouth Lakes | 86.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 54 | Grace CaseyGrassfield | 85.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 55 | Kaitlyn RubyJames W. Robinson | 84.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 56 | Cera VickGrassfield | 84.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 57 | Mairyn MullinsJames W. Robinson | 84.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 58 | Sarah GhantiwalaSouth Lakes | 84.4 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 59 | Marie SohlbergC.G. Woodson | 84.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 60 | Lillian SwartzbaughSouth Lakes | 83.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 61 | Avery PowersGainesville | 82.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 62 | Amelia CopplerThomas Dale | 82.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 63 | Sophia CollinsWashington-Liberty | 82.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 64 | Makayla McDonaldGainesville | 82.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 65 | Elyn AkinsGrassfield | 81.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 66 | Charlotte ConklinC.G. Woodson | 81.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 67 | Aria HedderlyYorktown | 80.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 68 | Lilia ThompsonWashington-Liberty | 78.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 69 | Olivia SmithColonial Forge | 78.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 70 | Audrey MartinCosby | 77.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 71 | Riley LongGainesville | 75.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 72 | Eliana CramptonGainesville | 73.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 73 | Evie MadduxJ.R. Tucker | 72.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 74 | Sara CorbinGrassfield | 71.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 75 | Madison AdamsPatriot | 70.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 76 | Eva Von MertensWashington-Liberty | 69.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 77 | Natalie DyeGrassfield | 67.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 78 | Braelynn LovePatriot | 67.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 79 | Cameron MorganCosby | 66.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 80 | Kaia RappeSouth Lakes | 65.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 81 | Alexandria ToroGrassfield | 64.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 82 | Ella EngelhardtWashington-Liberty | 63.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 83 | Ava FrancisColonial Forge | 58.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 84 | Elizabeth AkersJ.R. Tucker | 57.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 85 | Emma KistnerThomas Dale | 56.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 86 | Julia FilipekCosby | 55.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 87 | Clara WilkinsonColonial Forge | 55.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 88 | Ainsley TeagueColonial Forge | 54.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 89 | Ellen AddisonManchester | 52.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 90 | Ansley JohnsonGainesville | 52.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 91 | Ariana PereiraGainesville | 51.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 92 | Emerson GreerJ.R. Tucker | 47.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 93 | Reese PearsonJ.R. Tucker | 47.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 94 | Ramata DiomandeThomas Dale | 45.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 95 | Ananya ParasramPatriot | 43.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 96 | Kaitlyn LonsdaleGrassfield | 43.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 97 | Sydney ParrisOscar Smith | 43.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 98 | Delaney DuranCosby | 41.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 99 | Sophia MartinezJ.R. Tucker | 36.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 100 | Ella RaschkeJ.R. Tucker | 29.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
Order is by Statistical Rating among every rated runner in the field: each qualifying team’s seven and the individual qualifiers, who score for no team. A rating is the runner’s best district or regional race. The coverage notes describe the field. Runners with the same shown rating stay in unrounded order.
UNRANKED TEAMS · GIRLS
0 qualifying teams with fewer than five rated runners
Unranked means not scored, not last. Their rated runners still appear in the individual order.
READ BEFORE USING
What this projection is not.
- A combined hypothetical field per sex. Qualification comes from the regional championships, not from the meet’s own lists, so the field can differ from who actually runs. This is not an official division result.
- Qualifiers are not starters. A team’s seven highest-rated regional runners may not be the seven who run, and a qualifier may not start; each team’s other regional runners are not shown. A runner’s best district or regional race may be older than the regional championship.
- Points are not predicted times. A Statistical Rating puts every course on one yardstick; it is not a predicted time, and not a Class 6 State course time.
- No probabilities. Nothing here is a chance of winning, a margin or an interval.
- Gaps stay gaps. Unrated runners and incomplete teams are missing evidence, not predictions of a slow or last-place finish.