NOVARUNNERS PROJECTIONS
VHSL Class 6 State Championship 2026
VHSL Class 6 State Championship, Sat Nov 7, 2026, Leesburg. Team standings projected from ratings, with each rating’s basis in view where it rests on a meet.
PROJECTION · UNOFFICIAL
Calculated Oct 29.
A deterministic projection, not a result. Each qualifying team’s seven highest-rated runners and the individual qualifiers are placed in rating order in one combined field per sex; the teams are then scored like a cross-country meet, with individuals taking no team place. It predicts no times and gives no probabilities.
COVERAGE
Who is rated, and from what.
Each runner’s rating is their best 2026 Statistical Rating on the day among their rated district and regional championship races, not their season best: varsity races only, middle-school runners left out, lower-tier races dropped. The field comes from the regional championships the coverage notes name, matched to that rating by athlete ID; a runner without a rated 2026 district or regional race is counted but not listed. How on-the-day ratings work
| Coverage | Boys | Girls |
|---|---|---|
| Qualifying teams | 12 | 12 |
| Individual qualifiers | 20 | 20 |
| Rated runners in the field | 104 | 104 |
| Rated district or regional races (one · two or more) | 10444 · 60 | 10439 · 65 |
| Teams ranked (five or more rated) | 12 of 12 | 12 of 12 |
| Teams unranked | 0 | 0 |
| Statistical Rating K (2026 scale) | 488.025 | 490.690 |
Ratings are each runner’s best 2026 on-the-day rating among their rated district and regional championship races (v15, as of 2026-10-29), not their season best. Field: the top 3 teams from the Region 6A, Region 6B, Region 6C and Region 6D championships (Oct 24, Oct 28 and Oct 29) and from each, the first 5 finishers not on a qualifying team, who run as individuals. Each qualifying team runs its 7 highest-rated runners among those who ran for it at its regional championship; the rest of its regional squad is not in the field. Individuals take no team place, so they never score or displace. Rated district and regional races per runner, over every runner the qualifying rule gives (each qualifying team’s squad and the individual qualifiers), boys: 60 with two or more, 44 with one, 0 with none; girls: 65 with two or more, 39 with one, 0 with none. A runner with none is not listed. The meet’s team list was not yet posted, so the field follows the qualifying rule alone. Regular-season races are not used; the 22 rated district and regional championships are on the meets page.
TEAM STANDINGS · COMBINED HYPOTHETICAL FIELD
Boys · Class 6 State 2026 projection
| Rank | Team | Score | Scoring order | Runners by basis | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Lake Braddock | 55 | 3-4-11-16-21 (42)(43) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Lake Braddock
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 02 | West Potomac | 66 | 2-8-14-15-27 (48)(50) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for West Potomac
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 03 | C.G. Woodson | 89 | 1-17-18-23-30 (34)(54) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for C.G. Woodson
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 04 | Patriot | 123 | 5-19-20-32-47 (49)(57) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Patriot
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 05 | Woodbridge | 150 | 9-29-35-37-40 (59)(62) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Woodbridge
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 06 | Stafford | 154 | 7-10-28-53-56 (67)(68) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Stafford
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 07 | Langley | 182 | 22-24-33-38-65 (74)(77) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Langley
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 08 | J.R. Tucker | 192 | 25-31-39-46-51 (71)(72) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for J.R. Tucker
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 09 | Oakton | 196 | 12-26-45-55-58 (70)(73) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Oakton
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Chantilly | 205 | 13-36-41-52-63 (64)(69) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Chantilly
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Cosby | 284 | 6-44-76-78-80 (81)(84) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Cosby
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| 12 | Grassfield | 341 | 60-61-66-75-79 (82)(83) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Grassfield
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A score adds the first five team places. Team places count only runners on ranked teams, so they can be lower than the overall rating order. Tied scores are broken by the sixth runner’s place, and a team with a sixth runner ranks ahead of one without.
TOP INDIVIDUALS · RATING ORDER · NOT A FINISH PREDICTION
Boys · top 100 rated runners
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Isaac SchoolsC.G. Woodson | 177.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 02 | Daniel BlackWest Potomac | 177.4 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 03 | Steven WinesThomas Jefferson S&T | 177.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 04 | Alexander FeatherlySouth County | 176.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 05 | Gavin DanielsGainesville | 175.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 06 | Maverick MagruderLake Braddock | 173.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 07 | Calvin BensonLake Braddock | 171.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 08 | Preston SpanglerPatriot | 170.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 09 | Gavin SilvaSouth Lakes | 169.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 10 | Jonathan DawitForest Park | 169.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 11 | Jonas YiengstWest Springfield | 168.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 12 | Parker WoottenCosby | 168.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 13 | Gabriel EverettWestern Branch | 167.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 14 | Ethan ToweryStafford | 167.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 15 | Benjamin KosowskiSouth County | 167.4 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 16 | Nico DiffenbachWest Potomac | 166.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 17 | Jimmy OrtizWoodbridge | 166.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 18 | Zachary ParedesJames W. Robinson | 164.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 19 | Quinn O'NeillStafford | 164.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 20 | Connor Mallett JacksonNorth Stafford | 164.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 21 | Matt WaltersLake Braddock | 163.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 22 | Roman NallOakton | 163.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 23 | Ayush PatelBattlefield | 163.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 24 | Jacob CrochetiereChantilly | 162.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 25 | Andrew EdwardsWest Potomac | 162.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
Show all 100 (75 more)Showing all 100 · show fewer
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Trent LyklingWest Potomac | 162.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 27 | Baden GearyHerndon | 162.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 28 | Noah DeLukeLake Braddock | 161.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 29 | Carson TaylorColgan | 160.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 30 | Christian KellyC.G. Woodson | 160.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 31 | Noah LeahyC.G. Woodson | 160.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 32 | Bryce YangMcLean | 160.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 33 | Christopher "Jai" HarrisPatriot | 160.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 34 | Connor LynchPatriot | 160.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 35 | Tyson CulverLake Braddock | 160.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 36 | Nial NygilLangley | 158.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 37 | Charlie PentonC.G. Woodson | 157.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 38 | Henry AhnLangley | 156.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 39 | Jonathan PeedGeorge C. Marshall | 155.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 40 | Brian BookerJ.R. Tucker | 154.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 41 | Colin RiversOakton | 154.4 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 42 | Brad Lee KhanerWest Potomac | 154.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 43 | Isaiah HastingsStafford | 153.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 44 | Bradley JohnsonWoodbridge | 153.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 45 | Dylan LimC.G. Woodson | 153.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 46 | Will ThorpeJ.R. Tucker | 151.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 47 | Jaden LasterPatriot | 151.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 48 | Dominic ScaliaLangley | 151.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 49 | Kai SimkissWakefield | 151.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 50 | Daniel ObenschainC.G. Woodson | 150.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 51 | Jeyrick Cruz-AquinoWoodbridge | 150.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 52 | Ian BreslinChantilly | 150.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 53 | Ian RooneyWoodbridge | 150.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 54 | Kiernan StephensonLangley | 148.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 55 | Jake PennockJ.R. Tucker | 148.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 56 | Marco Arias-CrespinWoodbridge | 148.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 57 | Henry MorganChantilly | 147.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 58 | Sonny RoweLake Braddock | 147.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 59 | Alexander MooreLandstown | 147.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 60 | Marek MankaLake Braddock | 146.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 61 | Conner SmithCosby | 146.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 62 | Onur VuralOakton | 145.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 63 | Manning OjibwayJ.R. Tucker | 145.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 64 | David BeckwithPatriot | 144.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 65 | James GallagherWest Potomac | 144.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 66 | Jaxon HarrisPatriot | 143.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 67 | Asher CorrothersWest Potomac | 143.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 68 | Carter SehlJ.R. Tucker | 143.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 69 | Maddox ByrdThomas Dale | 142.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 70 | Zachary FeinsteinChantilly | 142.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 71 | William GraingerStafford | 142.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 72 | Jonathan CheneyC.G. Woodson | 142.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 73 | Tate SheehanOakton | 142.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 74 | Jake CouillardLandstown | 142.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 75 | Samuel ReeseStafford | 142.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 76 | Joseph HetterichManchester | 141.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 77 | Andrew WhitePatriot | 140.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 78 | Carson TemplinOakton | 140.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 79 | John BishopWoodbridge | 140.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 80 | Brayden ThienGrassfield | 139.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 81 | Jacob CarpenterGrassfield | 138.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 82 | Brett KeehanWoodbridge | 138.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 83 | James NowickiChantilly | 138.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 84 | Jacob SilagChantilly | 137.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 85 | Dennis WangLangley | 137.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 86 | Camden RugglesGrassfield | 136.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 87 | Jason SotoStafford | 136.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 88 | Henry PerdomoStafford | 136.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 89 | Amir GolshaniChantilly | 136.4 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 90 | Lars SelanderOakton | 136.4 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 91 | Nathan LefflerJ.R. Tucker | 136.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 92 | James GregoryJ.R. Tucker | 134.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 93 | Matthew TaylorOakton | 134.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 94 | Lachlan ThomasLangley | 131.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 95 | Alexander WattersonGrassfield | 128.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 96 | Cooper BarteltCosby | 126.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 97 | Shayan MolaiyLangley | 124.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 98 | Aiden JonesCosby | 124.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 99 | Aiden RevellGrassfield | 123.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 100 | Adrian StaceyCosby | 121.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
Order is by Statistical Rating among every rated runner in the field: each qualifying team’s seven and the individual qualifiers, who score for no team. A rating is the runner’s best district or regional race. The coverage notes describe the field. Runners with the same shown rating stay in unrounded order.
UNRANKED TEAMS · BOYS
0 qualifying teams with fewer than five rated runners
Unranked means not scored, not last. Their rated runners still appear in the individual order.
READ BEFORE USING
What this projection is not.
- A combined hypothetical field per sex. Qualification comes from the regional championships, not from the meet’s own lists, so the field can differ from who actually runs. This is not an official division result.
- Qualifiers are not starters. A team’s seven highest-rated regional runners may not be the seven who run, and a qualifier may not start; each team’s other regional runners are not shown. A runner’s best district or regional race may be older than the regional championship.
- Points are not predicted times. A Statistical Rating puts every course on one yardstick; it is not a predicted time, and not a Class 6 State course time.
- No probabilities. Nothing here is a chance of winning, a margin or an interval.
- Gaps stay gaps. Unrated runners and incomplete teams are missing evidence, not predictions of a slow or last-place finish.