NOVARUNNERS PROJECTIONS
VHSL Class 1 State Championship 2026
VHSL Class 1 State Championship, Sat Nov 7, 2026, Salem. Team standings projected from ratings, with each rating’s basis in view where it rests on a meet.
PROJECTION · UNOFFICIAL
Calculated Oct 30.
A deterministic projection, not a result. Each qualifying team’s seven highest-rated runners and the individual qualifiers are placed in rating order in one combined field per sex; the teams are then scored like a cross-country meet, with individuals taking no team place. It predicts no times and gives no probabilities.
COVERAGE
Who is rated, and from what.
Each runner’s rating is their best 2026 Statistical Rating on the day among their rated district and regional championship races, not their season best: varsity races only, middle-school runners left out, lower-tier races dropped. The field comes from the regional championships the coverage notes name, matched to that rating by athlete ID; a runner without a rated 2026 district or regional race is counted but not listed. How on-the-day ratings work
| Coverage | Boys | Girls |
|---|---|---|
| Qualifying teams | 12 | 12 |
| Individual qualifiers | 20 | 20 |
| Rated runners in the field | 100 | 102 |
| Rated district or regional races (one · two or more) | 100100 · 0 | 102102 · 0 |
| Teams ranked (five or more rated) | 12 of 12 | 12 of 12 |
| Teams unranked | 0 | 0 |
| Statistical Rating K (2026 scale) | 487.341 | 489.861 |
Ratings are each runner’s best 2026 on-the-day rating among their rated district and regional championship races (v16, as of 2026-10-30), not their season best. Field: the top 3 teams from the Region 1A, Region 1B, Region 1C and Region 1D championships (Oct 27, Oct 28 and Oct 29) and from each, the first 5 finishers not on a qualifying team, who run as individuals. Each qualifying team runs its 7 highest-rated runners among those who ran for it at its regional championship; the rest of its regional squad is not in the field. Individuals take no team place, so they never score or displace. Rated district and regional races per runner, over every runner the qualifying rule gives (each qualifying team’s squad and the individual qualifiers), boys: 0 with two or more, 100 with one, 0 with none; girls: 0 with two or more, 102 with one, 0 with none. A runner with none is not listed. The meet’s team list was not yet posted, so the field follows the qualifying rule alone. Regular-season races are not used; the 33 rated district and regional championships are on the meets page.
TEAM STANDINGS · COMBINED HYPOTHETICAL FIELD
Girls · Class 1 State 2026 projection
| Rank | Team | Score | Scoring order | Runners by basis | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Auburn | 65 | 2-9-11-15-28 (36)(42) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Auburn
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 02 | George Wythe (Wytheville) | 66 | 1-4-18-20-23 (37)(38) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for George Wythe (Wytheville)
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 03 | Eastside | 103 | 5-7-13-25-53 (64)(73) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Eastside
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 04 | West Point | 122 | 10-24-26-29-33 (69)(81) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for West Point
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 05 | Galileo | 137 | 3-19-31-35-49 (63)(68) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Galileo
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 06 | Middlesex | 149 | 12-14-32-40-51 (57)(62) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Middlesex
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 07 | Mathews | 153 | 17-22-27-41-46 (58)(60) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Mathews
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 08 | Luray | 172 | 6-8-45-54-59 (82) | 2026: 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for Luray
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 09 | Honaker | 231 | 21-43-47-50-70 (71)(76) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Honaker
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Riverheads | 244 | 16-30-56-67-75 (77) | 2026: 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for Riverheads
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Grayson County | 254 | 34-48-52-55-65 (66)(78) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Grayson County
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | John I. Burton | 290 | 39-44-61-72-74 (79)(80) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for John I. Burton
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
A score adds the first five team places. Team places count only runners on ranked teams, so they can be lower than the overall rating order. Tied scores are broken by the sixth runner’s place, and a team with a sixth runner ranks ahead of one without.
TOP INDIVIDUALS · RATING ORDER · NOT A FINISH PREDICTION
Girls · top 100 rated runners
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Emma FaulknerGeorge Wythe (Wytheville) | 116.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 02 | Reese BunkerGiles | 98.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 03 | Beverly WarnerAuburn | 93.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 04 | Ava GarciaGalileo | 92.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 05 | Mia WilliamsGeorge Wythe (Wytheville) | 87.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 06 | Allie SalyerEastside | 75.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 07 | Brylee PainterLuray | 71.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 08 | Hailey MaysEastside | 71.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 09 | Isabela RizekLuray | 66.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 10 | Harper ScaggsAuburn | 64.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 11 | Headley BowisWest Point | 64.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 12 | Alyson FunkAuburn | 61.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 13 | Keichan LayneMiddlesex | 54.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 14 | Hannah MaysEastside | 50.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 15 | Miko LayneMiddlesex | 50.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 16 | Makenzie HottingerBland County | 48.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 17 | Autumn RorrerAuburn | 44.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 18 | Verity *Q-Indiv JordanRiverheads | 43.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 19 | Cecilia ContrerasEastern Montgomery | 40.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 20 | Elizabeth MooreMathews | 39.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 21 | Bella OzmarGeorge Wythe (Wytheville) | 37.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 22 | Maria FrelkRappahannock County | 36.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 23 | Ava MoonGalileo | 35.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 24 | Mia TignorRappahannock | 33.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 25 | Alana MalavoltiGeorge Wythe (Wytheville) | 30.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
Show all 100 (75 more)Showing all 100 · show fewer
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Lyla BosticHonaker | 29.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 27 | Allean RoweMathews | 29.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 28 | Jade NoriegaGeorge Wythe (Wytheville) | 28.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 29 | Anna JenkinsWest Point | 27.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 30 | Katie WilliamsEastside | 27.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 31 | Courtlyn BowisWest Point | 26.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 32 | Paige MorrisMathews | 26.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 33 | Renniah RonoNorthampton | 26.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 34 | Charlee SongerAuburn | 26.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 35 | Ada WarrenRappahannock | 24.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 36 | Mckenna FoulisWest Point | 23.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 37 | Helen QuebeRiverheads | 21.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 38 | Jessie ArthurGalileo | 19.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 39 | Addison CannonPatrick Henry (G. Spring) | 18.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 40 | Aleena RezaMiddlesex | 16.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 41 | Natalie FulksWest Point | 13.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 42 | Yami Chavez-HuertaEastern Montgomery | 11.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 43 | Leyla LoveGalax | 7.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 44 | Maggie PrudencioGrayson County | 7.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 45 | Camryn SneadGalileo | 7.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 46 | Johnnie GaynorAuburn | 6.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 47 | Rosalie LachnietPatrick Henry (G. Spring) | 6.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 48 | Leah HawkinsGeorge Wythe (Wytheville) | 5.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 49 | Wren PatrickRural Retreat | 5.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 50 | Vivienne BrownGeorge Wythe (Wytheville) | 3.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 51 | Wren GladwellRappahannock | 3.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 52 | Lindsay FranklinRappahannock | 2.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 53 | Adlin HubbleRappahannock County | 2.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 54 | Ava StoughJohn I. Burton | 1.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 55 | Seleniah BaumgardnerHolston | — | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 56 | Aubrey AdamsMiddlesex | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 57 | Jessica TaylorMathews | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 58 | May LachnietPatrick Henry (G. Spring) | — | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 59 | Hayley LightAuburn | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 60 | Jenni Martinez-CanoBuffalo Gap | — | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 61 | Lucy DeweverAltavista Combined School | — | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 62 | Erin HubbardHonaker | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 63 | Miranda AdkinsAltavista Combined School | — | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 64 | Leah HarveyJohn I. Burton | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 65 | Maya JenkinsLuray | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 66 | Kylee SwansonMathews | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 67 | Reese RatliffHonaker | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 68 | Caleigh MarshallGrayson County | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 69 | Isabelle DelgiornoGalileo | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 70 | Shiloh McGlothlinHonaker | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 71 | Piper WardMiddlesex | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 72 | Victoria RodriguezGrayson County | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 73 | Lydia LeachEastside | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 74 | Amaya SoursLuray | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 75 | Abigail MaaserGrayson County | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 76 | Penelope QuebeRiverheads | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 77 | Olivia HoffieldMiddlesex | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 78 | Gracie HellebrandtMathews | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 79 | Chloe CatronLuray | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 80 | Jordan SadegMathews | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 81 | Loxleigh HoodJohn I. Burton | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 82 | Elliot LeaseMiddlesex | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 83 | Addison HerndonGalileo | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 84 | Molly RoseEastside | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 85 | Sarah CummingsGrayson County | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 86 | Jaylah GarrisGrayson County | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 87 | Breonna ShalawyloRiverheads | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 88 | Samantha Van OpstalGalileo | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 89 | Lexi BlackwellWest Point | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 90 | Abigail St. ClairHonaker | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 91 | Riley AdamsHonaker | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 92 | Lindsey HarveyJohn I. Burton | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 93 | Adsila NdiayeEastside | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 94 | Maddie StallardJohn I. Burton | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 95 | Madeline ProkopRiverheads | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 96 | Emma MusickHonaker | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 97 | Eva BeyelerRiverheads | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 98 | Mila GriffithGrayson County | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 99 | Olivia CathellJohn I. Burton | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 100 | Haleigh ShortJohn I. Burton | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
Order is by Statistical Rating among every rated runner in the field: each qualifying team’s seven and the individual qualifiers, who score for no team. A rating is the runner’s best district or regional race. The coverage notes describe the field. Runners with the same shown rating stay in unrounded order.
UNRANKED TEAMS · GIRLS
0 qualifying teams with fewer than five rated runners
Unranked means not scored, not last. Their rated runners still appear in the individual order.
READ BEFORE USING
What this projection is not.
- A combined hypothetical field per sex. Qualification comes from the regional championships, not from the meet’s own lists, so the field can differ from who actually runs. This is not an official division result.
- Qualifiers are not starters. A team’s seven highest-rated regional runners may not be the seven who run, and a qualifier may not start; each team’s other regional runners are not shown. A runner’s best district or regional race may be older than the regional championship.
- Points are not predicted times. A Statistical Rating puts every course on one yardstick; it is not a predicted time, and not a Class 1 State course time.
- No probabilities. Nothing here is a chance of winning, a margin or an interval.
- Gaps stay gaps. Unrated runners and incomplete teams are missing evidence, not predictions of a slow or last-place finish.