NOVARUNNERS PROJECTIONS
VHSL Class 1 State Championship 2026
VHSL Class 1 State Championship, Sat Nov 7, 2026, Salem. Team standings projected from ratings, with each rating’s basis in view where it rests on a meet.
PROJECTION · UNOFFICIAL
Calculated Oct 30.
A deterministic projection, not a result. Each qualifying team’s seven highest-rated runners and the individual qualifiers are placed in rating order in one combined field per sex; the teams are then scored like a cross-country meet, with individuals taking no team place. It predicts no times and gives no probabilities.
COVERAGE
Who is rated, and from what.
Each runner’s rating is their best 2026 Statistical Rating on the day among their rated district and regional championship races, not their season best: varsity races only, middle-school runners left out, lower-tier races dropped. The field comes from the regional championships the coverage notes name, matched to that rating by athlete ID; a runner without a rated 2026 district or regional race is counted but not listed. How on-the-day ratings work
| Coverage | Boys | Girls |
|---|---|---|
| Qualifying teams | 12 | 12 |
| Individual qualifiers | 20 | 20 |
| Rated runners in the field | 100 | 102 |
| Rated district or regional races (one · two or more) | 100100 · 0 | 102102 · 0 |
| Teams ranked (five or more rated) | 12 of 12 | 12 of 12 |
| Teams unranked | 0 | 0 |
| Statistical Rating K (2026 scale) | 487.341 | 489.861 |
Ratings are each runner’s best 2026 on-the-day rating among their rated district and regional championship races (v16, as of 2026-10-30), not their season best. Field: the top 3 teams from the Region 1A, Region 1B, Region 1C and Region 1D championships (Oct 27, Oct 28 and Oct 29) and from each, the first 5 finishers not on a qualifying team, who run as individuals. Each qualifying team runs its 7 highest-rated runners among those who ran for it at its regional championship; the rest of its regional squad is not in the field. Individuals take no team place, so they never score or displace. Rated district and regional races per runner, over every runner the qualifying rule gives (each qualifying team’s squad and the individual qualifiers), boys: 0 with two or more, 100 with one, 0 with none; girls: 0 with two or more, 102 with one, 0 with none. A runner with none is not listed. The meet’s team list was not yet posted, so the field follows the qualifying rule alone. Regular-season races are not used; the 33 rated district and regional championships are on the meets page.
TEAM STANDINGS · COMBINED HYPOTHETICAL FIELD
Boys · Class 1 State 2026 projection
| Rank | Team | Score | Scoring order | Runners by basis | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Auburn | 53 | 3-7-11-15-17 (61)(64) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Auburn
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 02 | Parry McCluer | 54 | 1-2-9-19-23 (78)(79) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Parry McCluer
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 03 | Galileo | 70 | 5-6-12-22-25 (52)(56) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Galileo
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 04 | Rappahannock County | 150 | 14-16-33-37-50 (80) | 2026: 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for Rappahannock County
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 05 | Mathews | 158 | 20-24-30-36-48 (54)(55) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Mathews
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 06 | Altavista Combined School | 163 | 4-32-38-42-47 (53)(75) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Altavista Combined School
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 07 | George Wythe (Wytheville) | 174 | 8-31-34-39-62 (71) | 2026: 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for George Wythe (Wytheville)
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 08 | West Point | 174 | 10-27-35-44-58 (72)(73) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for West Point
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 09 | Honaker | 212 | 18-21-51-59-63 (68)(69) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Honaker
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Castlewood | 221 | 13-26-45-67-70 (74)(76) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Castlewood
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Eastside | 230 | 29-40-41-43-77 | 2026: 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for Eastside
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | Northampton | 240 | 28-46-49-57-60 (65)(66) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Northampton
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A score adds the first five team places. Team places count only runners on ranked teams, so they can be lower than the overall rating order. Tied scores are broken by the sixth runner’s place, and a team with a sixth runner ranks ahead of one without.
TOP INDIVIDUALS · RATING ORDER · NOT A FINISH PREDICTION
Boys · top 100 rated runners
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Kebryl ChandlerParry McCluer | 178.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 02 | Grayson WelcherEastern Montgomery | 167.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 03 | Caleb CooperParry McCluer | 158.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 04 | Blake BrownAuburn | 157.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 05 | Obadiah CrewsAltavista Combined School | 145.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 06 | Barak TahirkhaliGalileo | 139.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 07 | Luke BryantGalileo | 138.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 08 | Jameson FunkAuburn | 138.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 09 | Courtland JonesGeorge Wythe (Wytheville) | 137.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 10 | Darius JonesMiddlesex | 137.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 11 | Sam AshbyRiverheads | 131.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 12 | Ty HoodRye Cove | 129.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 13 | Sebastian GeorgeParry McCluer | 128.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 14 | Evan ReedyGrayson County | 126.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 15 | Quinn AgnewWest Point | 125.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 16 | Landon MillerAuburn | 125.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 17 | Xavier JohnsonGalileo | 124.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 18 | Calan ParksBland County | 124.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 19 | Isac CooperCastlewood | 124.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 20 | Drew RobinsonRappahannock County | 122.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 21 | Braxdyn HavensBland County | 122.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 22 | Wyatt PriceAuburn | 118.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 23 | Jaxon MayerGiles | 117.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 24 | Aiden RobinsonRappahannock County | 117.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 25 | Braydon McCrackenPatrick Henry (G. Spring) | 117.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
Show all 100 (75 more)Showing all 100 · show fewer
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Caiden RichardsAuburn | 115.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 27 | Hunter DyeHonaker | 114.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 28 | Samuel CarpenterParry McCluer | 113.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 29 | Cooper BoydRiverheads | 113.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 30 | Ryan PattersonLuray | 111.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 31 | Kurt CollinsChilhowie | 110.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 32 | Adam GreveMathews | 110.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 33 | Jack YoungRiverheads | 110.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 34 | Ayden O'BerryAppomattox Governor's School | 109.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 35 | Lincoln CombsHonaker | 107.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 36 | Colten JohnsonTwin Springs | 107.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 37 | James KempGalileo | 105.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 38 | Mathew CooperParry McCluer | 104.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 39 | Ivar GoldenMathews | 104.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 40 | Parson LutzGalileo | 103.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 41 | Chris MartinezNorthumberland | 103.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 42 | Parker KingCastlewood | 103.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 43 | Mason WestChilhowie | 101.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 44 | Dae’Veon WashingtonLancaster | 101.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 45 | Andrew SeeterlinWest Point | 100.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 46 | Santino SeckersNorthampton | 99.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 47 | Easton PhelpsEastside | 98.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 48 | Kris DiggsMathews | 97.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 49 | Jeremiah ShresthaGeorge Wythe (Wytheville) | 96.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 50 | Antonio TuckerAltavista Combined School | 96.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 51 | Nicholas BurfieldRappahannock County | 96.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 52 | Ethan RussellGeorge Wythe (Wytheville) | 95.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 53 | Bill LohrWest Point | 95.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 54 | Greyson ClementsMathews | 94.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 55 | Jayden TangMiddlesex | 94.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 56 | Benjamin KingRappahannock County | 93.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 57 | Ben WoodruffAltavista Combined School | 92.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 58 | Knox DaltonGeorge Wythe (Wytheville) | 91.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 59 | Jason CorreaEastside | 90.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 60 | Evan McReynoldsEastside | 89.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 61 | Breyden MilamAltavista Combined School | 89.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 62 | Brandon EdwardsEastside | 89.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 63 | Cole RuddWest Point | 88.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 64 | Dalten KeithCastlewood | 87.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 65 | Hudson TaylorNorthampton | 87.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 66 | Mason HartAltavista Combined School | 85.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 67 | Elton HudginsMathews | 83.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 68 | Parker ShirillaNorthumberland | 81.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 69 | Jayden TalbottNorthampton | 81.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 70 | Mateo CanalesRappahannock County | 80.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 71 | Tyler BoydHonaker | 80.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 72 | Koy McGeeGalileo | 78.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 73 | Jason DowdyAltavista Combined School | 78.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 74 | Cole ChristensenMathews | 77.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 75 | Bryce LarsonMathews | 76.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 76 | Kolby MorrisGalileo | 74.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 77 | Carter FoxNorthampton | 72.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 78 | Thomas SeeterlinWest Point | 70.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 79 | Keaton CookHonaker | 70.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 80 | Aaiden-Lee BowmanNorthampton | 68.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 81 | Samuel ZhuAuburn | 65.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 82 | Silas PhillipsGeorge Wythe (Wytheville) | 65.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 83 | Joseph MusickHonaker | 64.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 84 | Henry LightAuburn | 63.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 85 | Jacob DuffmanNorthampton | 60.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 86 | Walker TaylorNorthampton | 58.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 87 | Salem HallCastlewood | 54.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 88 | Colton BlakenshipHonaker | 35.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 89 | Silas HarrisHonaker | 35.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 90 | Brayden StoneCastlewood | 32.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 91 | Andrew SchmidtGeorge Wythe (Wytheville) | 32.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 92 | Axel LopezWest Point | 29.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 93 | Charles DowdyWest Point | 28.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 94 | Carter DishmanCastlewood | 26.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 95 | Draygon SmithAltavista Combined School | 23.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 96 | Joseph SkeenCastlewood | 22.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 97 | Bronston WilliamsEastside | 21.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 98 | Victor PoluikisParry McCluer | 2.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 99 | Seven MedinaParry McCluer | 1.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 100 | Kailo SmithRappahannock County | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
Order is by Statistical Rating among every rated runner in the field: each qualifying team’s seven and the individual qualifiers, who score for no team. A rating is the runner’s best district or regional race. The coverage notes describe the field. Runners with the same shown rating stay in unrounded order.
UNRANKED TEAMS · BOYS
0 qualifying teams with fewer than five rated runners
Unranked means not scored, not last. Their rated runners still appear in the individual order.
READ BEFORE USING
What this projection is not.
- A combined hypothetical field per sex. Qualification comes from the regional championships, not from the meet’s own lists, so the field can differ from who actually runs. This is not an official division result.
- Qualifiers are not starters. A team’s seven highest-rated regional runners may not be the seven who run, and a qualifier may not start; each team’s other regional runners are not shown. A runner’s best district or regional race may be older than the regional championship.
- Points are not predicted times. A Statistical Rating puts every course on one yardstick; it is not a predicted time, and not a Class 1 State course time.
- No probabilities. Nothing here is a chance of winning, a margin or an interval.
- Gaps stay gaps. Unrated runners and incomplete teams are missing evidence, not predictions of a slow or last-place finish.