NOVARUNNERS PROJECTIONS
Northern Region 6D Championship 2026
Northern Region 6D Championship, Wed Oct 28, 2026, Fairfax Station. Team standings projected from ratings, with each rating’s basis in view where it rests on a meet.
PROJECTION · UNOFFICIAL
Calculated Oct 24.
A deterministic projection, not a result. Each qualifying team’s seven highest-rated runners and the individual qualifiers are placed in rating order in one combined field per sex; the teams are then scored like a cross-country meet, with individuals taking no team place. It predicts no times and gives no probabilities.
COVERAGE
Who is rated, and from what.
Each runner’s rating is their 2026 season-best Statistical Rating on the day, the value the team boards use: varsity races only, middle-school runners left out, lower-tier races dropped. The field comes from the district championships the coverage notes name, matched to that rating by athlete ID; there is no 2025 fallback, so a district runner without a rated 2026 race is counted but not listed. How on-the-day ratings work
| Coverage | Boys | Girls |
|---|---|---|
| Qualifying teams | 8 | 8 |
| Individual qualifiers | 4 | 2 |
| Rated runners in the field | 60 | 58 |
| 2026 rating (one meet · two or more) | 602 · 58 | 582 · 56 |
| Teams ranked (five or more rated) | 8 of 8 | 8 of 8 |
| Teams unranked | 0 | 0 |
| Statistical Rating K (2026 scale) | 488.357 | 491.309 |
2026 ratings come from 26 admitted meets: Adidas XC Challenge, Albemarle Invitational, Bay Rivers District Championship, Cedar Run District Championships, Concorde District CC Championship, Fork Union Cross Country Invitational, Great American XC Festival, Ham City Hustle Invitational, Jefferson District Championship, Knights Crossing XC Invitational, Liberty District CC Championship, Oatlands Invitational, Octoberfest Invitational, Patriot District CC Championship, Pole Green - "The Southern" XC Invite by ECE, Pole Green XC Classic, Potomac District Championship, Runnin' with the Wolves, StallionsXC Invitational, The VA XC Showcase, Third Battle Invitational, Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Trinity / Valkyrie Invitational, VTCA Fall Classic, Valley District Championships, Wolverine XC Invitational. Ratings are the 2026 v12 season bests as of 2026-10-24; the meet’s team list was captured 2026-10-24. Field: the top 4 teams from the Liberty District and Concorde District championships (Oct 21) and the top-15 finishers outside them, who run as individuals. Each qualifying team runs its 7 highest-rated runners among those who ran for it at its district championship; the rest of its district squad is not in the field. Individuals take no team place, so they never score or displace. Registration was still open when the meet’s team list was captured (12 teams registered). In the field but not yet registered: South Lakes. The field follows the qualifying rule, not the registered list.
TEAM STANDINGS · COMBINED HYPOTHETICAL FIELD
Girls · Northern Region 6D 2026 projection
| Rank | Team | Score | Scoring order | Runners by basis | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Yorktown | 44 | 3-4-9-12-16 (23)(28) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Yorktown
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 02 | Washington-Liberty | 83 | 6-11-14-22-30 (31)(33) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Washington-Liberty
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 03 | South Lakes | 84 | 5-13-15-25-26 (27)(37) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for South Lakes
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 04 | Oakton | 135 | 1-21-29-34-50 (53)(54) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Oakton
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 05 | Langley | 137 | 7-19-32-36-43 (46)(48) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Langley
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 06 | McLean | 139 | 2-8-38-44-47 (49)(51) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for McLean
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 07 | James Madison | 140 | 17-20-24-39-40 (42)(52) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for James Madison
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 08 | Westfield | 149 | 10-18-35-41-45 (55)(56) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Westfield
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
A score adds the first five team places. Team places count only runners on ranked teams, so they can be lower than the overall rating order. Tied scores are broken by the sixth runner’s place, and a team with a sixth runner ranks ahead of one without.
TOP INDIVIDUALS · RATING ORDER · NOT A FINISH PREDICTION
Girls · top 58 rated runners
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Abigail MesfinOakton | 149.9 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 02 | Jaidyn BudayMcLean | 141.4 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 03 | Molly HardwickYorktown | 133.9 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 04 | Ali MathewsYorktown | 114.9 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 05 | Quinn JacksonSouth Lakes | 113.6 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 06 | Susanna RichardWashington-Liberty | 113.2 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 07 | Raina WittrockLangley | 111.3 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 08 | Sydney WalkerMcLean | 106.0 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 09 | Ayla MehmoodYorktown | 105.8 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 10 | Brianna PritchardWestfield | 104.3 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 11 | Allison ErvinWashington-Liberty | 103.9 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 12 | Keeley GardnerYorktown | 99.2 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 13 | Olivia LeveySouth Lakes | 98.4 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 14 | Maddie BrysWashington-Liberty | 96.0 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 15 | Aila SimkissWakefield | 94.9 | 2026 · 3 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 16 | Charlotte CaptainSouth Lakes | 94.8 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 17 | Cecilia FloomYorktown | 93.9 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 18 | Magnolia ZensJames Madison | 93.8 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 19 | Audrey GaryWestfield | 91.7 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 20 | Elsa BackmanLangley | 89.0 | 2026 · 5 meets | In team’s seven |
| 21 | Allison KroghJames Madison | 88.6 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 22 | Sarah VaranoOakton | 87.0 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 23 | Sophia CollinsWashington-Liberty | 85.9 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 24 | Sofia RosalesYorktown | 84.8 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 25 | Itala FoschiCentreville | 84.8 | 2026 · 3 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
Show all 58 (33 more)Showing all 58 · show fewer
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Sophia VassilakosJames Madison | 84.1 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 27 | Carly NavasSouth Lakes | 83.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 28 | Lillian SwartzbaughSouth Lakes | 82.7 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 29 | Sarah GhantiwalaSouth Lakes | 81.6 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 30 | Aria HedderlyYorktown | 81.2 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 31 | Monica UribeOakton | 78.8 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 32 | Caroline (Callie) KaplanWashington-Liberty | 78.8 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 33 | Lilia ThompsonWashington-Liberty | 78.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 34 | Alicia MallonLangley | 76.9 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 35 | Eva Von MertensWashington-Liberty | 74.2 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 36 | Alisha DesaiOakton | 72.8 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 37 | Victoria WarnockWestfield | 72.6 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 38 | Hannah StevensLangley | 65.1 | 2026 · 5 meets | In team’s seven |
| 39 | Kaia RappeSouth Lakes | 64.6 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 40 | Siena KoernerMcLean | 64.2 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 41 | Tippa ParuchabutrJames Madison | 63.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 42 | Tabitha RauenzahnJames Madison | 62.8 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 43 | Dara AnyalebechiWestfield | 61.8 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 44 | Abby GlassmanJames Madison | 61.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 45 | Carol Anne Garreta-Vander JagtLangley | 60.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 46 | Ella WrightMcLean | 59.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 47 | Mary SchaadWestfield | 58.6 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 48 | Danielle MarinoLangley | 58.6 | 2026 · 5 meets | In team’s seven |
| 49 | Sammi CyrMcLean | 58.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 50 | Morgan SmithLangley | 55.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 51 | Elizabeth BurnisonMcLean | 52.7 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 52 | Anoureen ElghoulOakton | 51.4 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 53 | Sophie BittenbenderMcLean | 51.3 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 54 | Grace ChandlerJames Madison | 50.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 55 | Ida SelanderOakton | 48.9 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 56 | Ella CullenOakton | 44.8 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 57 | Bennett HarshWestfield | 44.4 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 58 | Naomi BeyeneWestfield | 18.0 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
Order is by Statistical Rating among every rated runner in the field: each qualifying team’s seven and the individual qualifiers, who score for no team. The coverage notes describe the field. Runners with the same shown rating stay in unrounded order.
UNRANKED TEAMS · GIRLS
0 qualifying teams with fewer than five rated runners
Unranked means not scored, not last. Their rated runners still appear in the individual order.
READ BEFORE USING
What this projection is not.
- A combined hypothetical field per sex. Qualification comes from the district championships, not from the meet’s own lists, so the field can differ from who actually runs. This is not an official division result.
- Qualifiers are not starters. A team’s seven highest-rated district runners may not be the seven who run, and a qualifier may not start; each team’s other district runners are not shown.
- Points are not predicted times. A Statistical Rating puts every course on one yardstick; it is not a predicted time, and not a Northern Region 6D course time.
- No probabilities. Nothing here is a chance of winning, a margin or an interval.
- Gaps stay gaps. Unrated runners and incomplete teams are missing evidence, not predictions of a slow or last-place finish.