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NOVARUNNERS PROJECTIONS

Liberty District CC Championship 2026

Liberty District CC Championship, Wed Oct 21, 2026, Fairfax Station. Team standings projected from ratings, with each rating’s basis in view where it rests on a meet.

PROJECTION · UNOFFICIAL

Calculated Oct 17.

A deterministic projection, not a result. Each registered team’s seven highest-rated runners are placed in rating order in one combined field per sex, then scored like a cross-country meet. It predicts no times and gives no probabilities.

Actual results: Liberty District CC Championship 2026 results

COVERAGE

Who is rated, and from what.

Each runner’s rating is their 2026 season-best Statistical Rating on the day, the value the team boards use: varsity races only, middle-school runners left out, lower-tier races dropped. A team’s roster is the runners whose rated 2026 races were for that team; there is no 2025 fallback, so a runner without a rated 2026 race is not shown. How on-the-day ratings work

Liberty District 2026 registered teams, rated runners and ranked teams, by sex
CoverageBoysGirls
Registered teams77
Rated runners on their rosters7168
2026 rating (one meet · two or more)7132 · 396828 · 40
Teams ranked (five or more rated)7 of 76 of 7
Teams unranked01
Statistical Rating K (2026 scale)489.041494.133

2026 ratings come from 17 admitted meets: Adidas XC Challenge, Albemarle Invitational, Fork Union Cross Country Invitational, Great American XC Festival, Ham City Hustle Invitational, Knights Crossing XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational, Octoberfest Invitational, Pole Green - "The Southern" XC Invite by ECE, Pole Green XC Classic, Runnin' with the Wolves, StallionsXC Invitational, Third Battle Invitational, Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Trinity / Valkyrie Invitational, VTCA Fall Classic, Wolverine XC Invitational. Ratings are the 2026 v9 season bests as of 2026-10-12; the team list was captured 2026-10-17. 1 team missing from the meet’s team list is added to the field: George C. Marshall. The team list does not say boys or girls, so every registered team is in both fields. Only each team’s seven highest-rated runners are in the field, so the individual order leaves out the rest.

TEAM STANDINGS · COMBINED HYPOTHETICAL FIELD

Girls · Liberty District 2026 projection

Scoring order in timing-sheet notation: the first five places add up to the score; the sixth and seventh, in parentheses, can displace other teams’ runners.Lower score is better
Projected girls team standings; each team is followed by a disclosure listing its seven runners
RankTeamScoreScoring orderRunners by basis
01Yorktown342-3-7-9-13 (15)(17)2026: 7
7 runners for Yorktown
Yorktown: the seven highest-rated runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team placeRunnerStat. ratingBasisEvidence
2Molly Hardwick134.22026 · 2 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Third Battle Invitational
3Ali Mathews114.92026 · 3 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Oatlands Invitational, Octoberfest Invitational
7Ayla Mehmood105.92026 · 2 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Third Battle Invitational
9Keeley Gardner99.12026 · 2 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Octoberfest Invitational
13Sofia Rosales84.72026 · 3 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Octoberfest Invitational, Third Battle Invitational
(15)Cecilia Floom81.42026 · 2 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Third Battle Invitational
(17)Aria Hedderly81.02026 · 3 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Oatlands Invitational, Octoberfest Invitational
02Washington-Liberty554-8-11-12-20 (21)(22)2026: 7
7 runners for Washington-Liberty
Washington-Liberty: the seven highest-rated runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team placeRunnerStat. ratingBasisEvidence
4Susanna Richard113.42026 · 3 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Third Battle Invitational
8Allison Ervin103.92026 · 3 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Oatlands Invitational
11Maddie Brys89.82026 · 3 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Oatlands Invitational
12Sophia Collins85.72026 · 3 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Oatlands Invitational
20Caroline (Callie) Kaplan78.82026 · 3 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Third Battle Invitational
(21)Hannah Bellerose75.52026 · 2 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance
(22)Eva Von Mertens73.92026 · 2 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Oatlands Invitational
03Langley835-6-19-24-29 (31)(37)2026: 7
7 runners for Langley
Langley: the seven highest-rated runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team placeRunnerStat. ratingBasisEvidence
5Raina Wittrock111.32026 · 3 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Wolverine XC Invitational
6Abigail Pickard109.02026 · 2 meetsBest: Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Sep 4 · also Wolverine XC Invitational
19Elsa Backman79.42026 · 4 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Wolverine XC Invitational, Third Battle Invitational
24Alicia Mallon66.12026 · 3 meetsBest: Wolverine XC Invitational, Sep 19 · also Oatlands Invitational, Third Battle Invitational
29Hannah Stevens63.82026 · 4 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Wolverine XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational
(31)Danielle Marino56.82026 · 4 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Wolverine XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational
(37)Meila Manouchehri51.22026 · 3 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Wolverine XC Invitational
04McLean891-10-18-27-33 (34)(36)2026: 7
7 runners for McLean
McLean: the seven highest-rated runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team placeRunnerStat. ratingBasisEvidence
1Jaidyn Buday142.32026 · 3 meetsBest: Great American XC Festival, Oct 3 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Third Battle Invitational
10Sydney Walker98.72026 · 3 meetsBest: Great American XC Festival, Oct 3 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Third Battle Invitational
18Sarah Thomas79.72026 · 2 meetsBest: Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Sep 4 · also Great American XC Festival
27Siena Koerner64.62026 · 3 meetsBest: Great American XC Festival, Oct 3 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Third Battle Invitational
33Ryan Ayers54.22026 · 1 meetBest: Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Sep 4
(34)Olivia Cho53.82026 · 1 meetBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10
(36)Elizabeth Burnison52.22026 · 3 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Great American XC Festival
05George C. Marshall13223-25-26-28-30 (32)(38)2026: 7
7 runners for George C. Marshall
George C. Marshall: the seven highest-rated runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team placeRunnerStat. ratingBasisEvidence
23Anne Hall66.82026 · 2 meetsBest: Great American XC Festival, Oct 3 · also Oatlands Invitational
25Tabitha Shimooka65.22026 · 3 meetsBest: Great American XC Festival, Oct 3 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational
26Annie Merrill65.02026 · 3 meetsBest: Great American XC Festival, Oct 3 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational
28Lorel Tarutani63.82026 · 3 meetsBest: Great American XC Festival, Oct 3 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational
30Lucia Cabellos58.82026 · 2 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Wolverine XC Invitational
(32)Rima Lawlor56.72026 · 3 meetsBest: Wolverine XC Invitational, Sep 19 · also Oatlands Invitational, Great American XC Festival
(38)Olivia Frizell48.02026 · 3 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Great American XC Festival
06Wakefield14414-16-35-39-40 (41)(42)2026: 7
7 runners for Wakefield
Wakefield: the seven highest-rated runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team placeRunnerStat. ratingBasisEvidence
14Aila Simkiss84.22026 · 2 meetsBest: Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Sep 4 · also Wolverine XC Invitational
16Wren Gabel81.12026 · 1 meetBest: Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Sep 4
35Elizabeth Davis52.32026 · 1 meetBest: Wolverine XC Invitational, Sep 19
39Roxanne Carnahan37.62026 · 1 meetBest: Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Sep 4
40Kyla Berthold27.62026 · 2 meetsBest: Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Sep 4 · also Wolverine XC Invitational
(41)Jasmine Benavides10.02026 · 2 meetsBest: Wolverine XC Invitational, Sep 19 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance
(42)Audrey Allen—2026 · 2 meetsBest: Wolverine XC Invitational, Sep 19 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance

A score adds the first five team places. Team places count only runners on ranked teams, so they can be lower than the overall rating order. Tied scores are broken by the sixth runner’s place, and a team with a sixth runner ranks ahead of one without.

TOP INDIVIDUALS · RATING ORDER · NOT A FINISH PREDICTION

Girls · top 46 rated runners

Girls top rated runners, 1 to 25
OrderRunner / teamStatistical RatingRating basisTeam status
01Jaidyn BudayMcLean142.32026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
02Molly HardwickYorktown134.22026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
03Ali MathewsYorktown114.92026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
04Susanna RichardWashington-Liberty113.42026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
05Raina WittrockLangley111.32026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
06Abigail PickardLangley109.02026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
07Ayla MehmoodYorktown105.92026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
08Allison ErvinWashington-Liberty103.92026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
09Keeley GardnerYorktown99.12026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
10Sydney WalkerMcLean98.72026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
11Maddie BrysWashington-Liberty89.82026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
12Sophia CollinsWashington-Liberty85.72026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
13Sofia RosalesYorktown84.72026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
14Aila SimkissWakefield84.22026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
15Cecilia FloomYorktown81.42026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
16Wren GabelWakefield81.12026 · 1 meetIn team’s seven
17Aria HedderlyYorktown81.02026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
18Sarah ThomasMcLean79.72026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
19Elsa BackmanLangley79.42026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
20Caroline (Callie) KaplanWashington-Liberty78.82026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
21Hannah BelleroseWashington-Liberty75.52026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
22Eva Von MertensWashington-Liberty73.92026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
23Isabelle DaviesHerndon71.42026 · 2 meetsTeam unranked (fewer than five rated)
24Anne HallGeorge C. Marshall66.82026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
25Alicia MallonLangley66.12026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
Show all 46 (21 more)Showing all 46 · show fewer
Girls top rated runners, 26 to 46
OrderRunner / teamStatistical RatingRating basisTeam status
26Tabitha ShimookaGeorge C. Marshall65.22026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
27Annie MerrillGeorge C. Marshall65.02026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
28Siena KoernerMcLean64.62026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
29Lorel TarutaniGeorge C. Marshall63.82026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
30Hannah StevensLangley63.82026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
31Grace PrzybyszHerndon59.62026 · 2 meetsTeam unranked (fewer than five rated)
32Lucia CabellosGeorge C. Marshall58.82026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
33Danielle MarinoLangley56.82026 · 4 meetsIn team’s seven
34Rima LawlorGeorge C. Marshall56.72026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
35Ryan AyersMcLean54.22026 · 1 meetIn team’s seven
36Olivia ChoMcLean53.82026 · 1 meetIn team’s seven
37Elizabeth DavisWakefield52.32026 · 1 meetIn team’s seven
38Elizabeth BurnisonMcLean52.22026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
39Meila ManouchehriLangley51.22026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
40Olivia FrizellGeorge C. Marshall48.02026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
41Roxanne CarnahanWakefield37.62026 · 1 meetIn team’s seven
42Kyla BertholdWakefield27.62026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
43Molly ClistHerndon13.92026 · 1 meetTeam unranked (fewer than five rated)
44Jasmine BenavidesWakefield10.02026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
45Audrey AllenWakefield—2026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
46Stella AlbersHerndon—2026 · 1 meetTeam unranked (fewer than five rated)

Order is by Statistical Rating among rated runners in this projection’s field, including runners on unranked teams. The coverage notes describe the field. Runners with the same shown rating stay in unrounded order.

UNRANKED TEAMS · GIRLS

1 teams with fewer than five rated runners

Unranked means not scored, not last. Their rated runners still appear in the individual order.

READ BEFORE USING

What this projection is not.

Rank. Projected team order, lowest score first. Tied scores are broken by the sixth runner’s place.Score. The sum of the team’s first five team-scoring places. Lower is better.Scoring order. Team places as on a timing sheet: the first five add up to the score. The sixth and seventh, in parentheses, can displace other teams’ runners.Team place. Place counting only runners on ranked teams, so it can be lower than the overall rating order. Places in parentheses can displace other teams’ runners.Statistical Rating. The runner’s rating on the meet season’s points scale, not a predicted time on this course. Shown to 0.1 point (1 point = 3 s), with a dash below 0.Evidence. The meet and date behind the rating, and any other current-season meets.Coverage. The meet’s registered teams by sex: how many there are, how many rated runners their rosters hold, what it rests on, and how many teams can be scored.Boys. Counts for the boys’ registered teams.Girls. Counts for the girls’ registered teams.Team. A registered team with at least five rated runners. Teams with fewer are not scored, rather than ranked last.Runners by basis. How many of the team’s listed runners are rated from this season’s races. Every rating on this page is a season best; none is carried over from an earlier season.Runner. A runner on a registered team, one of the team’s seven highest-rated runners.Rating basis. What the rating rests on: the runner’s best rated race this season, at identified meets. Every rating on this page rests on this.Order. Position by Statistical Rating among rated runners in this projection’s field, including runners on unranked teams. The coverage notes describe the field. Not a finish prediction.Runner / team. The runner and the registered team whose roster they are on.Team status. Whether the runner is in the team’s scoring seven or on an unranked team with fewer than five rated runners. A projection that includes runners beyond a team’s seven marks them as outside the seven.