NOVARUNNERS PROJECTIONS
Concorde District CC Championship 2026
Concorde District CC Championship, Wed Oct 21, 2026, Fairfax Station. Team standings projected from ratings, with each rating’s basis in view where it rests on a meet.
PROJECTION · UNOFFICIAL
Calculated Oct 17.
A deterministic projection, not a result. Each registered team’s seven highest-rated runners are placed in rating order in one combined field per sex, then scored like a cross-country meet. It predicts no times and gives no probabilities.
Actual results: Concorde District CC Championship 2026 results
COVERAGE
Who is rated, and from what.
Each runner’s rating is their 2026 season-best Statistical Rating on the day, the value the team boards use: varsity races only, middle-school runners left out, lower-tier races dropped. A team’s roster is the runners whose rated 2026 races were for that team; there is no 2025 fallback, so a runner without a rated 2026 race is not shown. How on-the-day ratings work
| Coverage | Boys | Girls |
|---|---|---|
| Registered teams | 6 | 6 |
| Rated runners on their rosters | 79 | 56 |
| 2026 rating (one meet · two or more) | 7933 · 46 | 5615 · 41 |
| Teams ranked (five or more rated) | 6 of 6 | 6 of 6 |
| Teams unranked | 0 | 0 |
| Statistical Rating K (2026 scale) | 489.041 | 494.133 |
2026 ratings come from 17 admitted meets: Adidas XC Challenge, Albemarle Invitational, Fork Union Cross Country Invitational, Great American XC Festival, Ham City Hustle Invitational, Knights Crossing XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational, Octoberfest Invitational, Pole Green - "The Southern" XC Invite by ECE, Pole Green XC Classic, Runnin' with the Wolves, StallionsXC Invitational, Third Battle Invitational, Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Trinity / Valkyrie Invitational, VTCA Fall Classic, Wolverine XC Invitational. Ratings are the 2026 v9 season bests as of 2026-10-12; the team list was captured 2026-10-17. The team list does not say boys or girls, so every registered team is in both fields. Only each team’s seven highest-rated runners are in the field, so the individual order leaves out the rest.
TEAM STANDINGS · COMBINED HYPOTHETICAL FIELD
Girls · Concorde District 2026 projection
| Rank | Team | Score | Scoring order | Runners by basis | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | South Lakes | 34 | 2-4-5-10-13 (19)(24) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for South Lakes
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 02 | James Madison | 67 | 6-9-11-20-21 (22)(29) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for James Madison
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 03 | Oakton | 72 | 1-8-14-17-32 (33)(36) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Oakton
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 04 | Westfield | 78 | 3-7-15-25-28 (31)(39) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Westfield
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 05 | Centreville | 115 | 12-16-23-26-38 | 2026: 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for Centreville
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 06 | Chantilly | 144 | 18-27-30-34-35 (37)(40) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Chantilly
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A score adds the first five team places. Team places count only runners on ranked teams, so they can be lower than the overall rating order. Tied scores are broken by the sixth runner’s place, and a team with a sixth runner ranks ahead of one without.
TOP INDIVIDUALS · RATING ORDER · NOT A FINISH PREDICTION
Girls · top 40 rated runners
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Abigail MesfinOakton | 150.8 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 02 | Quinn JacksonSouth Lakes | 114.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 03 | Brianna PritchardWestfield | 104.2 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 04 | Olivia LeveySouth Lakes | 97.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 05 | Charlotte CaptainSouth Lakes | 90.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 06 | Allison KroghJames Madison | 87.6 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 07 | Audrey GaryWestfield | 87.5 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 08 | Sarah VaranoOakton | 86.8 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 09 | Magnolia ZensJames Madison | 86.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 10 | Carly NavasSouth Lakes | 83.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 11 | Sophia VassilakosJames Madison | 83.4 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 12 | Itala FoschiCentreville | 82.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 13 | Sarah GhantiwalaSouth Lakes | 76.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 14 | Alisha DesaiOakton | 72.4 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 15 | Victoria WarnockWestfield | 72.3 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 16 | Faith HartmanCentreville | 71.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 17 | Monica UribeOakton | 71.4 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 18 | Carmen VanYperenChantilly | 70.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 19 | Lillian SwartzbaughSouth Lakes | 65.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 20 | Tippa ParuchabutrJames Madison | 63.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 21 | Abby GlassmanJames Madison | 62.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 22 | Tabitha RauenzahnJames Madison | 61.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 23 | Olivia FerrickCentreville | 61.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 24 | Kaia RappeSouth Lakes | 59.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 25 | Mary SchaadWestfield | 58.2 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
Show all 40 (15 more)Showing all 40 · show fewer
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Charleigh KinnieCentreville | 54.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 27 | Kirtana GaneshChantilly | 51.6 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 28 | Dara AnyalebechiWestfield | 48.2 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 29 | Grace ChandlerJames Madison | 45.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 30 | Anneli AndersonChantilly | 44.5 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 31 | Bennett HarshWestfield | 43.9 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 32 | Anoureen ElghoulOakton | 43.9 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 33 | Ella CullenOakton | 43.5 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 34 | Zoe MurdochChantilly | 43.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 35 | Imogen BrinkmoellerChantilly | 42.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 36 | Ida SelanderOakton | 40.5 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 37 | Ellsa AndersonChantilly | 37.9 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 38 | Jenny CaravelloCentreville | 30.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 39 | Keirra HintzWestfield | 19.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 40 | Katelyn PremChantilly | 12.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
Order is by Statistical Rating among rated runners in this projection’s field, including runners on unranked teams. The coverage notes describe the field. Runners with the same shown rating stay in unrounded order.
UNRANKED TEAMS · GIRLS
0 teams with fewer than five rated runners
Unranked means not scored, not last. Their rated runners still appear in the individual order.
READ BEFORE USING
What this projection is not.
- A combined hypothetical field per sex. Registration does not say who runs Varsity A, B or JV, so each registered team’s rated runners are placed in one field. This is not an official division result.
- Registered teams are not entry lists. A roster here is the team’s runners with a rated 2026 race for it; its seven highest-rated may not be the seven who run, and new or unrated runners are not shown.
- Points are not predicted times. A Statistical Rating puts every course on one yardstick; it is not a predicted time, and not a Concorde District course time.
- No probabilities. Nothing here is a chance of winning, a margin or an interval.
- Gaps stay gaps. Unrated runners and incomplete teams are missing evidence, not predictions of a slow or last-place finish.