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NOVARUNNERS PROJECTIONS

Cedar Run District Championships 2026

Cedar Run District Championships, Wed Oct 21, 2026, Nokesville. Team standings projected from ratings, with each rating’s basis in view where it rests on a meet.

PROJECTION · UNOFFICIAL

Calculated Oct 18.

A deterministic projection, not a result. Each registered team’s seven highest-rated runners are placed in rating order in one combined field per sex, then scored like a cross-country meet. It predicts no times and gives no probabilities.

Actual results: Cedar Run District Championships 2026 results

COVERAGE

Who is rated, and from what.

Each runner’s rating is their 2026 season-best Statistical Rating on the day, the value the team boards use: varsity races only, middle-school runners left out, lower-tier races dropped. A team’s roster is the runners whose rated 2026 races were for that team; there is no 2025 fallback, so a runner without a rated 2026 race is not shown. How on-the-day ratings work

Cedar Run District 2026 registered teams, rated runners and ranked teams, by sex
CoverageBoysGirls
Registered teams77
Rated runners on their rosters6050
2026 rating (one meet · two or more)6023 · 375022 · 28
Teams ranked (five or more rated)5 of 75 of 7
Teams unranked22
Statistical Rating K (2026 scale)486.411490.887

2026 ratings come from 18 admitted meets: Adidas XC Challenge, Albemarle Invitational, Fork Union Cross Country Invitational, Great American XC Festival, Ham City Hustle Invitational, Knights Crossing XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational, Octoberfest Invitational, Pole Green - "The Southern" XC Invite by ECE, Pole Green XC Classic, Runnin' with the Wolves, StallionsXC Invitational, The VA XC Showcase, Third Battle Invitational, Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Trinity / Valkyrie Invitational, VTCA Fall Classic, Wolverine XC Invitational. Ratings are the 2026 v10 season bests as of 2026-10-18; the team list was captured 2026-10-18. The team list does not say boys or girls, so every registered team is in both fields. Only each team’s seven highest-rated runners are in the field, so the individual order leaves out the rest.

TEAM STANDINGS · COMBINED HYPOTHETICAL FIELD

Boys · Cedar Run District 2026 projection

Scoring order in timing-sheet notation: the first five places add up to the score; the sixth and seventh, in parentheses, can displace other teams’ runners.Lower score is better
Projected boys team standings; each team is followed by a disclosure listing its seven runners
RankTeamScoreScoring orderRunners by basis
01Patriot372-6-7-10-12 (16)(19)2026: 7
7 runners for Patriot
Patriot: the seven highest-rated runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team placeRunnerStat. ratingBasisEvidence
2Preston Spangler177.22026 · 2 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Octoberfest Invitational
6Christopher "Jai" Harris154.52026 · 2 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Octoberfest Invitational
7Connor Lynch153.42026 · 3 meetsBest: Octoberfest Invitational, Oct 3 · also Oatlands Invitational, The VA XC Showcase
10Jaden Laster146.92026 · 3 meetsBest: The VA XC Showcase, Oct 17 · also Oatlands Invitational, Octoberfest Invitational
12David Beckwith142.22026 · 3 meetsBest: The VA XC Showcase, Oct 17 · also Oatlands Invitational, Octoberfest Invitational
(16)Andrew White137.62026 · 2 meetsBest: The VA XC Showcase, Oct 17 · also Oatlands Invitational
(19)Gavin Wilcock133.72026 · 2 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also The VA XC Showcase
02Gainesville531-4-13-17-18 (23)(25)2026: 7
7 runners for Gainesville
Gainesville: the seven highest-rated runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team placeRunnerStat. ratingBasisEvidence
1Gavin Daniels186.02026 · 3 meetsBest: Great American XC Festival, Oct 3 · also Oatlands Invitational, The VA XC Showcase
4Jaxtyn Denhof159.02026 · 3 meetsBest: The VA XC Showcase, Oct 17 · also Oatlands Invitational, Great American XC Festival
13Tyler Smith141.42026 · 2 meetsBest: Great American XC Festival, Oct 3 · also Oatlands Invitational
17Nathan Bentz134.52026 · 3 meetsBest: Great American XC Festival, Oct 3 · also Oatlands Invitational, The VA XC Showcase
18Tyler Kendris134.12026 · 3 meetsBest: Great American XC Festival, Oct 3 · also Oatlands Invitational, The VA XC Showcase
(23)Carson Terry126.92026 · 2 meetsBest: The VA XC Showcase, Oct 17 · also Albemarle Invitational
(25)Zachary Kendris125.32026 · 3 meetsBest: Great American XC Festival, Oct 3 · also Oatlands Invitational, The VA XC Showcase
03Battlefield603-5-11-20-21 (24)(27)2026: 7
7 runners for Battlefield
Battlefield: the seven highest-rated runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team placeRunnerStat. ratingBasisEvidence
3Tyler Zbrzezny160.32026 · 3 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Albemarle Invitational
5Ayush Patel157.32026 · 3 meetsBest: Albemarle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational
11Ebenezer Samuel146.52026 · 3 meetsBest: Albemarle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational
20Griffin Strait129.72026 · 3 meetsBest: Albemarle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational
21Oliver Craven128.92026 · 1 meetBest: Wolverine XC Invitational, Sep 19
(24)Jack Kuzara126.02026 · 3 meetsBest: Wolverine XC Invitational, Sep 19 · also Oatlands Invitational, Albemarle Invitational
(27)Alejandro Estrada123.52026 · 1 meetBest: Albemarle Invitational, Oct 10
04Independence688-9-14-15-22 (26)(28)2026: 7
7 runners for Independence
Independence: the seven highest-rated runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team placeRunnerStat. ratingBasisEvidence
8Connor Routson147.52026 · 2 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Wolverine XC Invitational
9Jaiden Diaz147.52026 · 1 meetBest: The VA XC Showcase, Oct 17
14Tyler Weber141.32026 · 3 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Third Battle Invitational
15Arjun Ayodhya140.42026 · 2 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Wolverine XC Invitational
22Aiden Atkins128.82026 · 3 meetsBest: Third Battle Invitational, Oct 10 · also Wolverine XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational
(26)Hunter Tydlacka123.62026 · 2 meetsBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26 · also Wolverine XC Invitational
(28)Pranav Raghavendra Setty109.42026 · 1 meetBest: Oatlands Invitational, Sep 26
05Osbourn Park15529-30-31-32-33 (34)(35)2026: 7
7 runners for Osbourn Park
Osbourn Park: the seven highest-rated runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team placeRunnerStat. ratingBasisEvidence
29Logan Woodcock105.72026 · 1 meetBest: Octoberfest Invitational, Oct 3
30Yan Barabash88.32026 · 2 meetsBest: Octoberfest Invitational, Oct 3 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance
31Samuel Garcia82.92026 · 2 meetsBest: Octoberfest Invitational, Oct 3 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance
32Ayden Mitchell73.52026 · 1 meetBest: Octoberfest Invitational, Oct 3
33Lucas Ngo70.12026 · 2 meetsBest: Octoberfest Invitational, Oct 3 · also Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance
(34)Tristan Saunders61.12026 · 1 meetBest: Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Sep 4
(35)Luke Atkinson58.52026 · 1 meetBest: Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Sep 4

A score adds the first five team places. Team places count only runners on ranked teams, so they can be lower than the overall rating order. Tied scores are broken by the sixth runner’s place, and a team with a sixth runner ranks ahead of one without.

TOP INDIVIDUALS · RATING ORDER · NOT A FINISH PREDICTION

Boys · top 39 rated runners

Boys top rated runners, 1 to 25
OrderRunner / teamStatistical RatingRating basisTeam status
01Gavin DanielsGainesville186.02026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
02Preston SpanglerPatriot177.22026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
03Tyler ZbrzeznyBattlefield160.32026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
04Jaxtyn DenhofGainesville159.02026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
05Ayush PatelBattlefield157.32026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
06Christopher "Jai" HarrisPatriot154.52026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
07Connor LynchPatriot153.42026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
08Connor RoutsonIndependence147.52026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
09Jaiden DiazIndependence147.52026 · 1 meetIn team’s seven
10Jaden LasterPatriot146.92026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
11Ebenezer SamuelBattlefield146.52026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
12David BeckwithPatriot142.22026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
13Tyler SmithGainesville141.42026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
14Tyler WeberIndependence141.32026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
15Arjun AyodhyaIndependence140.42026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
16Andrew WhitePatriot137.62026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
17Nathan BentzGainesville134.52026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
18Tyler KendrisGainesville134.12026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
19Gavin WilcockPatriot133.72026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
20Griffin StraitBattlefield129.72026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
21Oliver CravenBattlefield128.92026 · 1 meetIn team’s seven
22Aiden AtkinsIndependence128.82026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
23Carson TerryGainesville126.92026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
24Jack KuzaraBattlefield126.02026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
25Zachary KendrisGainesville125.32026 · 3 meetsIn team’s seven
Show all 39 (14 more)Showing all 39 · show fewer
Boys top rated runners, 26 to 39
OrderRunner / teamStatistical RatingRating basisTeam status
26Hunter TydlackaIndependence123.62026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
27Alejandro EstradaBattlefield123.52026 · 1 meetIn team’s seven
28Pranav Raghavendra SettyIndependence109.42026 · 1 meetIn team’s seven
29Logan WoodcockOsbourn Park105.72026 · 1 meetIn team’s seven
30Owen AsemotaOsbourn96.62026 · 1 meetTeam unranked (fewer than five rated)
31Colin SutphinOsbourn93.62026 · 1 meetTeam unranked (fewer than five rated)
32Miguel GuzmanOsbourn90.12026 · 1 meetTeam unranked (fewer than five rated)
33Yan BarabashOsbourn Park88.32026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
34Samuel GarciaOsbourn Park82.92026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
35Justin Lizama LopezOsbourn75.82026 · 1 meetTeam unranked (fewer than five rated)
36Ayden MitchellOsbourn Park73.52026 · 1 meetIn team’s seven
37Lucas NgoOsbourn Park70.12026 · 2 meetsIn team’s seven
38Tristan SaundersOsbourn Park61.12026 · 1 meetIn team’s seven
39Luke AtkinsonOsbourn Park58.52026 · 1 meetIn team’s seven

Order is by Statistical Rating among rated runners in this projection’s field, including runners on unranked teams. The coverage notes describe the field. Runners with the same shown rating stay in unrounded order.

UNRANKED TEAMS · BOYS

2 teams with fewer than five rated runners

Unranked means not scored, not last. Their rated runners still appear in the individual order.

READ BEFORE USING

What this projection is not.

Rank. Projected team order, lowest score first. Tied scores are broken by the sixth runner’s place.Score. The sum of the team’s first five team-scoring places. Lower is better.Scoring order. Team places as on a timing sheet: the first five add up to the score. The sixth and seventh, in parentheses, can displace other teams’ runners.Team place. Place counting only runners on ranked teams, so it can be lower than the overall rating order. Places in parentheses can displace other teams’ runners.Statistical Rating. The runner’s rating on the meet season’s points scale, not a predicted time on this course. Shown to 0.1 point (1 point = 3 s), with a dash below 0.Evidence. The meet and date behind the rating, and any other current-season meets.Coverage. The meet’s registered teams by sex: how many there are, how many rated runners their rosters hold, what it rests on, and how many teams can be scored.Boys. Counts for the boys’ registered teams.Girls. Counts for the girls’ registered teams.Team. A registered team with at least five rated runners. Teams with fewer are not scored, rather than ranked last.Runners by basis. How many of the team’s listed runners are rated from this season’s races. Every rating on this page is a season best; none is carried over from an earlier season.Runner. A runner on a registered team, one of the team’s seven highest-rated runners.Rating basis. What the rating rests on: the runner’s best rated race this season, at identified meets. Every rating on this page rests on this.Order. Position by Statistical Rating among rated runners in this projection’s field, including runners on unranked teams. The coverage notes describe the field. Not a finish prediction.Runner / team. The runner and the registered team whose roster they are on.Team status. Whether the runner is in the team’s scoring seven or on an unranked team with fewer than five rated runners. A projection that includes runners beyond a team’s seven marks them as outside the seven.