NOVARUNNERS PROJECTIONS
Capital/Colonial District Meet 2026
Capital/Colonial District Meet, Wed Oct 21, 2026, Mechanicsville. Team standings projected from ratings, with each rating’s basis in view where it rests on a meet.
PROJECTION · UNOFFICIAL
Calculated Oct 18.
A deterministic projection, not a result. Each registered team’s seven highest-rated runners are placed in rating order in one combined field per sex, then scored like a cross-country meet. It predicts no times and gives no probabilities.
COVERAGE
Who is rated, and from what.
Each runner’s rating is their 2026 season-best Statistical Rating on the day, the value the team boards use: varsity races only, middle-school runners left out, lower-tier races dropped. A team’s roster is the runners whose rated 2026 races were for that team; there is no 2025 fallback, so a runner without a rated 2026 race is not shown. How on-the-day ratings work
| Coverage | Boys | Girls |
|---|---|---|
| Registered teams | 7 | 7 |
| Rated runners on their rosters | 66 | 49 |
| 2026 rating (one meet · two or more) | 6625 · 41 | 4913 · 36 |
| Teams ranked (five or more rated) | 5 of 7 | 5 of 7 |
| Teams unranked | 2 | 2 |
| Statistical Rating K (2026 scale) | 486.411 | 490.887 |
2026 ratings come from 18 admitted meets: Adidas XC Challenge, Albemarle Invitational, Fork Union Cross Country Invitational, Great American XC Festival, Ham City Hustle Invitational, Knights Crossing XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational, Octoberfest Invitational, Pole Green - "The Southern" XC Invite by ECE, Pole Green XC Classic, Runnin' with the Wolves, StallionsXC Invitational, The VA XC Showcase, Third Battle Invitational, Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Trinity / Valkyrie Invitational, VTCA Fall Classic, Wolverine XC Invitational. Ratings are the 2026 v10 season bests as of 2026-10-18; the team list was captured 2026-10-18. The team list does not say boys or girls, so every registered team is in both fields. Only each team’s seven highest-rated runners are in the field, so the individual order leaves out the rest.
TEAM STANDINGS · COMBINED HYPOTHETICAL FIELD
Boys · Capital/Colonial District 2026 projection
| Rank | Team | Score | Scoring order | Runners by basis | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Hanover | 31 | 2-4-5-6-14 (15)(17) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Hanover
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 02 | Deep Run | 31 | 1-3-7-9-11 (18)(21) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Deep Run
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 03 | J.R. Tucker | 59 | 8-10-12-13-16 (19)(20) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for J.R. Tucker
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 04 | Douglas Freeman | 127 | 23-24-25-27-28 (30)(31) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Douglas Freeman
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 05 | Patrick Henry (Ashland) | 142 | 22-26-29-32-33 (34)(35) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Patrick Henry (Ashland)
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
A score adds the first five team places. Team places count only runners on ranked teams, so they can be lower than the overall rating order. Tied scores are broken by the sixth runner’s place, and a team with a sixth runner ranks ahead of one without.
TOP INDIVIDUALS · RATING ORDER · NOT A FINISH PREDICTION
Boys · top 36 rated runners
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Raymond TrageserDeep Run | 169.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 02 | Eli EtheredgeHanover | 162.0 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 03 | Samuel KeeferDeep Run | 159.0 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 04 | Brady StreetHanover | 156.8 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 05 | Eli HaydenHanover | 156.5 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 06 | Eli WarnerHanover | 155.6 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 07 | Luca CarlomagnoDeep Run | 155.5 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 08 | Brian BookerJ.R. Tucker | 154.8 | 2026 · 5 meets | In team’s seven |
| 09 | Jackson KepplerDeep Run | 153.2 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 10 | Will ThorpeJ.R. Tucker | 146.4 | 2026 · 5 meets | In team’s seven |
| 11 | Nikhil ShahDeep Run | 145.3 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 12 | Manning OjibwayJ.R. Tucker | 143.3 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 13 | Jake PennockJ.R. Tucker | 142.2 | 2026 · 5 meets | In team’s seven |
| 14 | Grady TimmHanover | 138.5 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 15 | Damien KrakowiakHanover | 134.4 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 16 | Nathan LefflerJ.R. Tucker | 134.1 | 2026 · 5 meets | In team’s seven |
| 17 | Daniel TruongHanover | 133.8 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 18 | Henry HowardDeep Run | 132.4 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 19 | Carter SehlJ.R. Tucker | 131.2 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 20 | James GregoryJ.R. Tucker | 131.0 | 2026 · 5 meets | In team’s seven |
| 21 | Grant ReillyDeep Run | 130.6 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 22 | Bryce WinstonPatrick Henry (Ashland) | 125.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 23 | Luke PelleiDouglas Freeman | 125.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 24 | Ryan SzobotaDouglas Freeman | 124.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 25 | Cade WilliamsDouglas Freeman | 122.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
Show all 36 (11 more)Showing all 36 · show fewer
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bryson WorthingtonPatrick Henry (Ashland) | 121.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 27 | Henry ChristnerDouglas Freeman | 120.9 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 28 | Judson SmithMechanicsville | 115.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | Team unranked (fewer than five rated) |
| 29 | William GirvinDouglas Freeman | 114.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 30 | Leonel EspinoPatrick Henry (Ashland) | 113.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 31 | Clarke GarrettDouglas Freeman | 112.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 32 | Kyle SchwartzDouglas Freeman | 107.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 33 | Dominic FoleyPatrick Henry (Ashland) | 106.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 34 | KP DauchPatrick Henry (Ashland) | 92.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 35 | Cedar HolcombePatrick Henry (Ashland) | 88.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 36 | Tanner BartzPatrick Henry (Ashland) | 71.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
Order is by Statistical Rating among rated runners in this projection’s field, including runners on unranked teams. The coverage notes describe the field. Runners with the same shown rating stay in unrounded order.
UNRANKED TEAMS · BOYS
2 teams with fewer than five rated runners
Unranked means not scored, not last. Their rated runners still appear in the individual order.
- Mechanicsville1 rated
- Mills Godwin0 rated
READ BEFORE USING
What this projection is not.
- A combined hypothetical field per sex. Registration does not say who runs Varsity A, B or JV, so each registered team’s rated runners are placed in one field. This is not an official division result.
- Registered teams are not entry lists. A roster here is the team’s runners with a rated 2026 race for it; its seven highest-rated may not be the seven who run, and new or unrated runners are not shown.
- Points are not predicted times. A Statistical Rating puts every course on one yardstick; it is not a predicted time, and not a Capital/Colonial District course time.
- No probabilities. Nothing here is a chance of winning, a margin or an interval.
- Gaps stay gaps. Unrated runners and incomplete teams are missing evidence, not predictions of a slow or last-place finish.