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Oct 30, 2024 · Shawsville, VA

Pioneer District Championship

Camp Alta Mons · Historical 2024 results

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Checked against TullyRunners at 9 held-out meets, 2024's ratings sit a median of 1.7 points (boys) and 4.4 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

1 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

BOYS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Pioneer District Championship - 10/30/2024 Camp Alta Mons, Shawsville, VA High School Boys 5000 Meter Run

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B

21 of 21 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +46.2 s course and conditions +71.2 s in-season fitness −25.0 sCourse constant 513.45 (513)Race constant 509.94 (510)

20 used anchors± 4.5 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 488.695Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 20 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 20, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Kebryl Chandler · Parry McCluer: Foot Locker South Regional (Nov 30) · VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · and 5 more
  2. 2 Logan Wheelock · Parry McCluer: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL Region 1C XC Championship (Nov 6) · and 4 more
  3. 3 Spencer Sisson · Eastern Montgomery: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL Region 1C XC Championship (Nov 6) · and 6 more
  4. 4 Caleb Cooper · Parry McCluer: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL Region 1C XC Championship (Nov 6) · and 4 more
  5. 5 Josh Cooper · Parry McCluer: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL Region 1C XC Championship (Nov 6) · and 4 more
  6. 6 Hinckley Lovelace · Parry McCluer: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL Region 1C XC Championship (Nov 6) · and 4 more
  7. 7 Caleb Sampson · Eastern Montgomery: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL Region 1C XC Championship (Nov 6) · and 5 more
  8. 8 Grayson Welcher · Eastern Montgomery: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL Region 1C XC Championship (Nov 6) · and 6 more
  9. 9 Martin Pizano-Franco · Eastern Montgomery: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL Region 1C XC Championship (Nov 6) · and 6 more
  10. 10 Sebastian George · Parry McCluer: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL Region 1C XC Championship (Nov 6) · and 4 more
  11. 11 Caleb Jones · Eastern Montgomery: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL Region 1C XC Championship (Nov 6) · and 5 more
  12. 12 Waylon Richmond · Eastern Montgomery: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL Region 1C XC Championship (Nov 6) · and 6 more
  13. 13 Owen Helmondollar · Narrows: VHSL Region 1C XC Championship (Nov 6) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 23) · and 2 more
  14. 14 Samuel Carpenter · Parry McCluer: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL Region 1C XC Championship (Nov 6) · and 4 more
  15. 15 Nicholas Thompson · Narrows: VHSL Region 1C XC Championship (Nov 6) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 23) · and 2 more
  16. 16 Will Gosnell · Eastern Montgomery: Metro XC Championships (Oct 23) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  17. 17 Jackson Matherly · Eastern Montgomery: Metro XC Championships (Oct 23) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  18. 18 Victor Wonner · Eastern Montgomery: Metro XC Championships (Oct 23) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 21) · and 1 more
  19. 20 David Taylor · Narrows: VHSL Region 1C XC Championship (Nov 6) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 23) · and 1 more
  20. 21 Caden Mason · Parry McCluer: Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 7)
Boys results, places shown 1 to 21 of 21 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Kebryl ChandlerParry McCluer · SOFinish 16:51.216:51.216:00.3168.6
2Logan WheelockParry McCluer · JRFinish 17:20.617:20.616:28.2159.3
3Spencer SissonEastern Montgomery · JRFinish 17:22.517:22.516:30.0158.7
4Caleb CooperParry McCluer · FRFinish 17:49.317:49.316:55.5150.2
5Josh CooperParry McCluer · JRFinish 17:53.617:53.616:59.6148.8
6Hinckley LovelaceParry McCluer · FRFinish 17:57.517:57.517:03.3147.6
7Caleb SampsonEastern Montgomery · JRFinish 18:10.318:10.317:15.5143.5
8Grayson WelcherEastern Montgomery · FRFinish 18:10.918:10.917:16.0143.4
9Martin Pizano-FrancoEastern Montgomery · SRFinish 19:32.019:32.018:33.0117.7
10Sebastian GeorgeParry McCluer · FRFinish 19:49.819:49.818:49.9112.1
11Caleb JonesEastern Montgomery · JRFinish 21:06.321:06.320:02.687.8
12Waylon RichmondEastern Montgomery · SRFinish 21:15.421:15.420:11.285.0
13Owen HelmondollarNarrows · SOFinish 21:59.621:59.620:53.271.0
14Samuel CarpenterParry McCluer · SOFinish 22:05.722:05.720:58.969.0
15Nicholas ThompsonNarrows · SRFinish 22:08.622:08.621:01.768.1
16Will GosnellEastern Montgomery · FRFinish 22:28.022:28.021:20.162.0
17Jackson MatherlyEastern Montgomery · JRFinish 22:32.022:32.021:24.060.7
18Victor WonnerEastern Montgomery · SOFinish 25:09.325:09.323:53.310.9
19Jonah MadisonParry McCluer · JRFinish 27:13.127:13.125:50.9—
20David TaylorNarrows · SRFinish 28:52.628:52.627:25.4—
21Caden MasonParry McCluer · SRFinish 30:58.930:58.929:25.3—

Pioneer District Championship, Oct 30, 2024

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.