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Oct 25, 2023 · Saint Paul, VA

Cumberland District Championship

Oxbow Lake · Historical 2023 results

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Checked against TullyRunners at 8 held-out meets, 2023's ratings sit a median of 2.1 points (boys) and 7.1 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

2 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

BOYS · VARSITY · 4,828 M

Varsity Boys Three Mile Run

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D

29 of 29 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −73.3 s course and conditions −53.1 s in-season fitness −20.2 sCourse constant 471.49 (471)Race constant 469.47 (469)

29 used anchors± 15.5 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 489.934Modeled distance 4,828 m

Adjusted from 29 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 29, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Parker King · Castlewood: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 3 more
  2. 2 Sam Gibson · Castlewood: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 3 more
  3. 3 Jacob Bush · Castlewood: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 3 more
  4. 4 Caleb Ghammashi · Eastside: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  5. 5 Brandon Edwards · J.I. Burton: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 3 more
  6. 6 Eli Day · Thomas Walker: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 2 more
  7. 7 Evan McReynolds · Eastside: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  8. 8 Landon Fleming · J.I. Burton: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 3 more
  9. 9 Heath Kiser · Castlewood: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 3 more
  10. 10 Xavier Sanders · Castlewood: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1)
  11. 11 Colten Johnson · Twin Springs: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 2 more
  12. 12 Chase Scott · J.I. Burton: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 3 more
  13. 13 Mason Mullins · Castlewood: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 3 more
  14. 14 Brayden Sturgill · J.I. Burton: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 3 more
  15. 15 Landon Mullins · J.I. Burton: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 3 more
  16. 16 Brayden Day · Thomas Walker: Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · UVA Wise High School Invitational (Sep 20)
  17. 17 Cole Stewart · Rye Cove: Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · UVA Wise High School Invitational (Sep 20)
  18. 18 Braydon McElyea · Rye Cove: Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · UVA Wise High School Invitational (Sep 20)
  19. 19 Ben Cochrane · J.I. Burton: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 3 more
  20. 20 Jacoby Dunn · Twin Springs: Run the Squatch (Sep 13)
  21. 21 Brock Stewart · Rye Cove: Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · UVA Wise High School Invitational (Sep 20)
  22. 22 Eli Castle · Eastside: Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · UVA Wise High School Invitational (Sep 20) · and 2 more
  23. 23 Alaric Renshaw · Twin Springs: Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · Run the Squatch (Sep 13)
  24. 24 Jared Glovier · Castlewood: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 2 more
  25. 25 Connor Walker · J.I. Burton: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 3 more
  26. 26 Brayden Arquette · Eastside: Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · UVA Wise High School Invitational (Sep 20) · and 2 more
  27. 27 Landon Lawson · Rye Cove: Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · UVA Wise High School Invitational (Sep 20)
  28. 28 Dawson Kern · Rye Cove: Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5)
  29. 29 Rylan Hillman · Twin Springs: Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · Run the Squatch (Sep 13)
Boys results, places shown 1 to 29 of 29 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Parker KingCastlewood · FRFinish 17:25.517:25.518:18.2123.9
2Sam GibsonCastlewood · JRFinish 17:35.917:35.918:29.1120.2
3Jacob BushCastlewood · SOFinish 17:53.017:53.018:47.1114.2
4Caleb GhammashiEastside · JRFinish 18:18.118:18.119:13.4105.5
5Brandon EdwardsJ.I. Burton · FRFinish 18:31.218:31.219:27.2100.9
6Eli DayThomas Walker · SRFinish 19:05.819:05.820:03.588.8
7Evan McReynoldsEastside · FRFinish 19:10.219:10.220:08.287.2
8Landon FlemingJ.I. Burton · SOFinish 19:27.519:27.520:26.381.2
9Heath KiserCastlewood · JRFinish 19:39.919:39.920:39.476.8
10Xavier SandersCastlewood · SRFinish 19:40.319:40.320:39.876.7
11Colten JohnsonTwin Springs · FRFinish 19:40.719:40.720:40.276.5
12Chase ScottJ.I. Burton · FRFinish 19:48.319:48.320:48.273.9
13Mason MullinsCastlewood · SOFinish 19:57.219:57.220:57.570.8
14Brayden SturgillJ.I. Burton · FRFinish 20:15.420:15.421:16.764.4
15Landon MullinsJ.I. Burton · FRFinish 20:18.020:18.021:19.463.5
16Brayden DayThomas Walker · FRFinish 20:44.020:44.021:46.754.4
17Cole StewartRye Cove · SOFinish 20:44.320:44.321:47.054.3
18Braydon McElyeaRye Cove · JRFinish 21:36.021:36.022:41.336.2
19Ben CochraneJ.I. Burton · SRFinish 21:55.421:55.423:01.729.4
20Jacoby DunnTwin Springs · JRFinish 21:56.021:56.023:02.329.2
21Brock StewartRye Cove · SRFinish 22:23.322:23.323:31.019.6
22Eli CastleEastside · SRFinish 22:28.422:28.423:36.417.8
23Alaric RenshawTwin Springs · SRFinish 22:30.022:30.023:38.017.3
24Jared GlovierCastlewood · SOFinish 23:01.123:01.124:10.76.4
25Connor WalkerJ.I. Burton · JRFinish 23:08.123:08.124:18.13.9
26Brayden ArquetteEastside · SOFinish 23:21.523:21.524:32.1—
27Landon LawsonRye Cove · SRFinish 25:11.225:11.226:27.4—
28Dawson KernRye Cove · SRFinish 26:21.726:21.727:41.4—
29Rylan HillmanTwin Springs · SRFinish 33:43.833:43.835:25.8—

GIRLS · VARSITY · 4,828 M

Varsity Girls Three Mile Run

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C

21 of 21 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −62.2 s course and conditions −40.3 s in-season fitness −21.9 sCourse constant 476.30 (476)Race constant 473.96 (474)

21 used anchors± 11.9 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 494.161Modeled distance 4,828 m

Adjusted from 21 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 21, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Shelby Stanley · Eastside: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  2. 2 Kaylen Fields · J.I. Burton: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  3. 3 Amelia Lewis · Thomas Walker: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 2 more
  4. 4 Jocelyn Aldrich · Eastside: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  5. 5 Jozalynn Phillips · Castlewood: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 2 more
  6. 6 Alexa Goins · Rye Cove: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 1 more
  7. 7 Leah Harvey · J.I. Burton: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  8. 8 Hannah Mcpherson · Thomas Walker: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · UVA Wise High School Invitational (Sep 20)
  9. 9 Kamryn Lee · Thomas Walker: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · UVA Wise High School Invitational (Sep 20)
  10. 10 Morgyn Bledsoe · Rye Cove: Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 2 more
  11. 11 Madison Adair · J.I. Burton: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  12. 12 Isabel Sawyers · Eastside: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  13. 13 Madison Sergent · J.I. Burton: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 3 more
  14. 14 Anya Mullins · J.I. Burton: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  15. 15 Emily Roberts · Eastside: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  16. 16 Mary Wood · Eastside: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 3 more
  17. 17 Molly Rose · Eastside: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 3 more
  18. 18 Maggie Adams · J.I. Burton: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  19. 19 Katelyn Chapman · Rye Cove: Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · UVA Wise High School Invitational (Sep 20)
  20. 20 Abigail Sloan · Rye Cove: Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · UVA Wise High School Invitational (Sep 20)
  21. 21 Kiley Adair · J.I. Burton: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 1D Championship (Nov 1) · and 3 more
Girls results, places shown 1 to 21 of 21 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Shelby StanleyEastside · SOFinish 19:28.219:28.220:14.189.5
2Kaylen FieldsJ.I. Burton · SRFinish 22:08.322:08.323:00.434.0
3Amelia LewisThomas Walker · SOFinish 22:16.622:16.623:09.131.1
4Jocelyn AldrichEastside · JRFinish 23:19.123:19.124:14.09.5
5Jozalynn PhillipsCastlewood · SOFinish 23:28.423:28.424:23.76.3
6Alexa GoinsRye Cove · JRFinish 23:51.923:51.924:48.1—
7Leah HarveyJ.I. Burton · FRFinish 24:38.024:38.025:36.0—
8Hannah McphersonThomas Walker · FRFinish 25:05.025:05.026:04.1—
9Kamryn LeeThomas Walker · SOFinish 25:18.125:18.126:17.7—
10Morgyn BledsoeRye Cove · JRFinish 25:34.425:34.426:34.6—
11Madison AdairJ.I. Burton · JRFinish 25:43.625:43.626:44.2—
12Isabel SawyersEastside · SOFinish 26:07.826:07.827:09.4—
13Madison SergentJ.I. Burton · JRFinish 26:32.026:32.027:34.5—
14Anya MullinsJ.I. Burton · FRFinish 26:35.726:35.727:38.3—
15Emily RobertsEastside · SOFinish 27:50.727:50.728:56.3—
16Mary WoodEastside · SOFinish 28:10.328:10.329:16.7—
17Molly RoseEastside · FRFinish 29:16.329:16.330:25.3—
18Maggie AdamsJ.I. Burton · JRFinish 30:34.230:34.231:46.2—
19Katelyn ChapmanRye Cove · SRFinish 30:57.930:57.932:10.8—
20Abigail SloanRye Cove · SRFinish 31:08.031:08.032:21.3—
21Kiley AdairJ.I. Burton · SOFinish 31:30.031:30.032:44.2—

Cumberland District Championship, Oct 25, 2023

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.